The omens are bleak for Luís Montenegro. According to a survey by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF, the PSD leader would lose the race for the premiership if his opponent were Pedro Nuno Santos. If PS activists choose José Luís Carneiro, Portuguese predictions point to a draw, but with a slight Socialist advantage. But there is another worrying fact: the percentage of those who believe that the PSD is not prepared to govern remains high (49%).
The data is not all in yet: the PS will still have to choose who will be its leader for the parliamentary elections on March 10 (the favorite is Pedro Nuno Santos). On the other hand, the fieldwork took place before the PSD Congress, in which Luís Montenegro set the agenda (for example, proposing to guarantee a minimum pension of 820 euros, through the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly). Two facts that could tip the balance.
Still, the premise for Montenegro is not famous, especially when it comes to the ability to lead a government: if there are 40% who answer yes (especially PSD voters, with 79%), it is 49% who say no, and the aggravating factor is that this is the predominant response across all regional, gender, age and social class segments of the sample. The Social Democrats don’t even go completely to the right, because the Chega voters didn’t believe in their ability to run a government either (and there were 17% of PSD voters who thought the same).
The opponent counts
As for the chances of the Social Democratic leader becoming the next Prime Minister, according to Portuguese predictions, everything seems to depend on the Socialist opponent he will face: with José Luís Carneiro the battle will be close (he loses with one percentage point) , with Pedro Nuno Santos the challenge will be more difficult (he loses by 16 points).
When Luís Montenegro and the former Minister of Infrastructure face each other, 47% of respondents indicate that the Socialist has a greater chance of becoming Prime Minister, against 31% for the Social Democrat. It is important to emphasize that Pedro Nuno Santos is the favorite in all regional, gender, age and social class segments of the sample. Only when analyzing the choices per party vote are exceptions found: the PSD leader leads among his own voters (66%), but also among liberal and centrist voters (but not among Chega).
When the game is played between Luís Montenegro and the Minister of the Interior, there is a draw, but with an advantage for José Luís Carneiro: 38% point to the socialist candidate, 37% to the social democrat, who this time has the full makes a profit. right (including Chega voters). Carneiro is completely left-wing, but it is noted that Socialist voters’ belief in his chances of becoming Prime Minister is lower (nine points less than in the case of Pedro Nuno Santos).
PSD voters are in favor of coalitions prior to the elections
When the scenario of coalitions on the right is put on the table before the elections, it is public that the CDS leaders are interested, but the Liberal Initiative is not, and that Chega is excluded. But should the PSD find partners before March 10 or not? According to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF, more Portuguese reject right-wing coalitions (47%) than those who defend them (36%). But the scenario is reversed if we emphasize only the reactions of Social Democratic voters: 51% are in favor, 39% are against. And there is also a favorable environment for pre-electoral coalitions between those who vote for CDS, IL and Chega (from the most to the least enthusiastic). And with whom must the PSD reach an agreement in advance? First with the CDS, then with the liberals, but also with Chega. Even in the event of a PSD victory in the parliamentary elections, but without an absolute majority, there are again more Portuguese against coalitions (46%), in this case post-electoral. Among the 40% minority defending this government solution, the preferred partner is again the CDS, followed by the Liberal Initiative and only then Chega.
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 802 effective interviews: 675 online interviews and 127 telephone interviews; 389 men and 413 women; 172 between 18 and 34 years, 199 between 35 and 49 years, 206 between 50 and 64 years and 225 for people over 65; Norte 257, Centro 165, Sul e Ilhas 142, AM Lisboa 238. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between November 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 71.75%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
