Luís Montenegro is the candidate for Prime Minister with the highest voting potential (51%), according to a survey by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF. But the distance that separates the PSD leader from one of the two main Socialist rivals is small: four points ahead of José Luís Carneiro (47%) and five ahead of Pedro Nuno Santos (46%). When the analysis focuses on the other side of the coin, the order is reversed: Santos has the highest rejection rate (48%), followed by Carneiro (44%) and Montenegro (43%).
The fieldwork for this research took place between November 18 and 23. It therefore does not reflect the possible impact of the promises presented at the PSD congress last weekend (whether on pensions or on the IRS). But the choice (on December 15 and 16) for socialist militants could also give a boost to Santos or Carneiro. These results also cannot be confused with voting intentions (this projection will be released tomorrow). What this research shows is which electoral market the candidate/party can aim for in the March 10 elections (voting potential) and which market is currently closed to them (rejection rate).. And it also includes the choices of abstainers and undecided voters.
Montenegro was favourite
Contrary to what has happened in previous investigations, the evidence favors Luís Montenegro. The Portuguese can predict a victory for Santos or Carneiro, but it is the leader of the PSD that they value most, as evidenced by the voting potential, which brings together those who “would definitely vote” (20%) with those who “could vote ” (31%). With an emphasis on residents of the Central region and the two youngest age groups (18 to 49 years).
On the other hand, it seems that Luís Montenegro is also the candidate for the parliamentary elections with a lower rejection rate: even though currently 43% are made up of those who “would never vote” for the PSD, with an emphasis on voters living in the metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon and people aged 65 or over (52%), a negative figure, taking into account that they are the age group that least abstains from voting.
Each of the two main rivals in the battle for the leadership of the PS ranks slightly lower than the Social Democrat. And Pedro Nuno Santos is worse than José Luis Carneiro, because he has a slightly smaller electoral market. Even if you are four points ahead of those who would “definitely vote,” you cannot win the head of government alone with those who are most loyal. Santos has a rejection rate four points higher than Carneiro and the difference widens in the Lisbon region and among the youngest age group in the sample (18 to 34 years old).
Little ones too far away
When the results of the candidates of the other parties are analyzed, it becomes clearer why only PSD and PS can aspire to lead a government. The electoral market is shrinking drastically, especially for the communist leader Paulo Raimundo, who has a rejection rate of 74%, but also for the centrist Nuno Melo (67%), the leader of the PAN, Inês Sousa Real (66%). and André Ventura (64%).
As for the leader of Chega, however, there is another data that points to great electoral growth: 12% of Portuguese say they would “definitely vote”, that is to say at the same level as the socialist José Luís Carneiro and already quite far from Mariana Mortágua (5%), even though the BE leader has a greater voting potential (34%) than Ventura (31%).
More data
78% – The rejection rate for votes for André Ventura (Chega) is especially high among the elderly (65 years or older), but also among those living in Porto. The greatest voting potential is clearly among young people between 18 and 34 years old (44%).
44% – Rui Rocha’s (Liberal Initiative) voting potential is exactly the same as Ventura’s among young people. And it is just below Chega’s leader among older voters in terms of vote rejection rate (72%).
45% – It is among those living in the South region that Mariana Mortágua (Bloco de Esquerda) shows the greatest voting potential. Like his two rivals on the right, he has no reason to smile at his seniors’ assessment: a 72% rejection rate.
84% – It is again the elderly who are the most critical of political extremes, both on the right and on the left, and Paulo Raimundo says so. It is also in the South that the communist has the greatest voting potential (27%), but far from Mortágua.
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 802 effective interviews: 675 online interviews and 127 telephone interviews; 389 men and 413 women; 172 between 18 and 34 years, 199 between 35 and 49 years, 206 between 50 and 64 years and 225 for people over 65; Norte 257, Centro 165, Sul e Ilhas 142, AM Lisboa 238. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between November 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 71.75%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
