The profile is not easy to draw. But there are rules that are common and help define the typical Portuguese voter: older, with more educational qualifications, and if they are professionally active, they are more likely to vote. In the words of researcher Paula do Espírito Santo: up to 25 years, the share of voters is “very low”. After all, the country has ‘the typical inverted pyramid’, where the percentage of elderly people is higher and makes up almost a quarter of the population. This also means that, if they abstain, there will be voters up to 25 years ‘little or less’ than in the other age groups.
Sofia Serra Silva, researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) of the University of Lisbon, warns that although there are “statistically significant differences in the electoral participation of young Portuguese,” it is necessary “not to fall into overly dramatic stories . driving them into the countryside of widespread apathy towards the political process.”
Still, says Pedro Magalhães, also a researcher at ICS, the idea of youth abstinence in 2022 became “more than normal.” This can be justified by ‘two hypotheses: the ability to attract these voters through new parties and the increasing use of early voting”.
Another political scientist interviewed by DN confirms this trend. But according to João Cancela, professor at the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa (FCSH), for many of these people there is also a “lack of party identification”.
Paula do Espírito Santo adds another variable to this equation, the marital status of each voter, which can have an influence: “In principle, there is a ritual regarding voting. Sometimes, when they vote, the two members of a couple. Or sometimes, if one goes first, the other can go too.”
The appearance of IL has a “profile” similar to that of BE
Despite the difficulty of profiling voters, understanding each party’s typical electorate is an easier task. Pedro Magalhães, who conducted the research together with João Cancela The social basis of Portuguese parties (published in 2020, with analysis up to the previous year) states that “the PS, PSD and CDU have an older electorate”, a brand mainly emphasized by socialists and social democrats. On the contrary: “BE, Chega, and especially Livre, PAN and IL have younger voters.”
The change of votes from PCP to Chega has not been confirmed. While communist sympathizers moved to the PS, the radical right capitalized on the discontent.
This “is also validated by 2022 data”. João Cancela explains that “This does not mean that the Liberal Initiative is the party with the most votes among young people. But if we compare the different age groups, the liberal initiative is much more successful among young people, especially among young people with a higher level of education, than among the rest of the population.” Something similar happened when the Left Bloc emerged in 1999 and went to elections for the first time: “It is a party profile that shows a pattern of growth or penetration in society that is not very different from among the rest of the population.” And the FCSH researcher also highlights the case of PAN: “It is a party that is more appealing and has a higher voting level, also in mainly urban contexts, namely in the areas of Lisbon and Setúbal, and especially among female voters and with higher voting rates. educational levels, so there are verifiable standards in these cases.”
Until last year the trend of a gender gap The electoral campaign, which already existed in other countries, did not seem to occur in Portugal (i.e. more women voted for the left than men). But in 2022 it seems to have finally arrived in Portugal. Among the female electorate, the left and centre-left parties (including the PAN) together obtained 58% of the vote (49% among the male electorate).
There is no change of votes from PCP to Chega
After the 2022 legislature, in which the CDU achieved a poor result (the parliamentary group went from ten to six deputies and the Greens were left without representation in parliament), several analyzes pointed to an alleged transfer of voters from the communist spectrum to Chega.
But this may not have happened. Analyzing long-term data, Sofia Serra Silva says that “there does not appear to be any significant vote transfers between the PCP and any other party”. “The data does not support this idea [de transferência entre PCP e Chega], which has spread thanks to the good performance of Chega in some parts of Alentejo, in some strongholds of the PCP and also due to the fact that the radical right has grown in other European countries through the voice of the industrial working class – a group that is crucial for the electoral strength of communist parties. In Portugal, the data do not support this idea”.
Paula do Espírito Santo explains that “now that the right is more fragmented, there is a different electoral choice, which goes more to the extreme. This could also channel some of the votes of the traditional PSD”. And also “some voters who do not identify with democratic solutions or with the situation we are currently in, from the regime’s point of view”, end up voting for Chega. In short, communists and right-wing radicals compete for ‘different target groups’. “The vote for Chega was much more of a protest vote. It is one of the reasons for the party’s growth”, while PCP voters may have migrated to the PS, “a response to the instability caused by the lack of an absolute majority, and the parties themselves not allowing the state budget to be approved [em 2021, facto que originou a crise política que resultou nas eleições do ano seguinte]”
Pedro Magalhães confirms this. Based on the post-election survey conducted in 2022, what was verifiable was “that a portion – small, but not irrelevant – of voters who say they sympathize with the PCP ultimately voted for the PS”, where “something similar” happened to the Bloco de Esquerda. However, this may not indicate a migration necessarily – “it could be much more a circumstance of the election, in this case the useful vote”.
In other words, as Sofia Serra Silva summarizes based on a study she conducted together with Nélson Santos: “over the years (2002-2022) there has been an increasing group of ‘demobilized’ voters, that is to say respondents who say they identify with the PCP but did not vote for the party (they voted for other parties or abstained). Who are these demobilized voters/voters? Compared to voters who identify with and vote for the party, those who have demobilized are younger supporters, also less left-wing (on the left-right scale) and less likely to be part of a union.”
Until last year the trend of a gender gap There seemed to be no elections taking place in Portugal (ie more women voted for the left than men). But in 2022 the time finally seems to have come. Among the female electorate, the left and centre-left parties together obtained 58% of the vote (49% among the male electorate).
What then is the challenge for the party, with the new legislature scheduled for March 10 next year? “It is about mobilizing those voters who identify themselves but do not vote for the PCP, and it also means going beyond the profile of the traditional communist voter, namely unionized workers, industrial workers and agriculture and individuals with basic education, given that the share and relevance of these social groups has decreased in Portuguese society”.
“In this context” it is important “that the sociodemographic profile of the communist electorate follows some of these changes so that its electoral relevance does not diminish as the social groups that traditionally support the party lose their relevance in today’s society,” he concludes .
The typical voter
Socialist Party: Researchers interviewed by DN point to the PS as a party with generally an older electorate. He is also loyal to the socialists. According to the research by Pedro Magalhães and João Cancela, the largest number of votes in 2022 came from women, despite being one of the parties with the least female and least educated voters.
Social Democratic Party: The PSD electorate is comparable to the PS. But more men vote for the PSD than women. Looking at history, Paula do Espírito Santo says: ‘In 2005 we had an absolute majority of the PS. In 2009 that was a relative majority. Two years later the PSD and the CDS had a majority. they have moved from an absolute majority from PS to PSD”.
He’s coming: Thanks to sharp growth in the last elections, the party managed to win votes from dissatisfied voters. It is also much more likely to be voted for by men than by women (practically two in three voters are men). It is among people with a secondary education that Chega received the most votes.
Liberal initiative: Together with Chega, PAN and Livre, IL is one of the most recent parties on the political scene. And together with Livre and PAN it was one of the favorite parties of young people.
The majority of IL voters are also highly educated (9% of voters with higher education). Only 1% of those with less than a high school education chose liberals.
Left block: It is one of the favorite parties of the youngest parties (8% of young voters went to the blocistas). Ultimately, in terms of electoral growth, the party’s characteristics are similar to those in IL, according to João Cancela.
According to the research he conducted together with Pedro Magalhães, 55% of voters among the blockers were women.
PCP/CDU: The Communists were one of the parties with the highest percentage of male votes. Despite not having many young voters, the CDU had a better result among 18 and 24 year olds, among people without secondary education. The idea that the electorate is aging is not confirmed. According to researchers, some of the usual communist voters may have switched to the PS.
Source: DN
