The choice of Pedro Nuno Santos seems to breathe new life into the PS. The latest Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF shows that the Socialists are growing (34.1%) and increasing their distance from Luís Montenegro’s PSD, which continues to lose (24.8%). Chega remains prominent in third place (16.3%) and is already worth as much as the sum of the following four parties: BE (6.3%), Liberal Initiative (4.1%), PAN (3.7 %) and CDU (2.7%). At the bottom of the table are Livre (1.8%) and CDS (1.2%).
With just over two months to go until the parliamentary elections on March 10, the trend can hardly be better for Pedro Nuno Santos and, on the other side of the coin, worse for Luís Montenegro. The Socialists, who had a narrow points lead over the Social Democrats last July, extended their lead to four points in October and to six in November, with António Costa still in the lead. This month of December, the difference is nine points and, judging by the analysis of the sample segments, it was women who contributed most to this: among the female electorate, the PS has risen three points since November and the PSD has fallen four points.
Despite the Socialists’ first place, the bloc of right-wing parties is still worth more than the bloc of left-wing parties, even though the difference has been reduced to just one and a half points. What could introduce a new factor into the parliamentary equation if these results were confirmed at the polls: it would be in the hands of the PAN of Inês Sousa Real (which is growing again in projections and surpassing the CDU of Paulo Raimundo) the possibility about the viability of a left-wing government.
Difficulties with the PSD
Despite this theoretical right-wing majority, the chance that Luís Montenegro will become prime minister is dramatically smaller at this point. Without Chega, the right (PSD, IL and CDS) is worth only 30 percentage points, the worst figure in the series of surveys carried out by Aximage this year (in the last parliamentary elections, in January 2022, it totaled almost 36 points). Even if the PAN were to join a post-electoral ‘coalition’ on the right (as it recently did in Madeira), it would still be lower (33.8) than what the PS is worth on its own (34.1%).
It has already been announced that a pre-election coalition between the PSD and the CDS will be formalized next Thursday (January 4). The fieldwork for this study took place the week before Christmas, before the signing of the agreement, and therefore cannot measure its effects. What is visible for the time being is that the arithmetic sum of the two parties is only 26%, below the 31 points of the 2022 parliamentary elections, and far from the 37 points achieved by the coalition led by Pedro Passos Coelho in 2015. (it won the elections, but was defeated by the parliamentary agreement between PS, BE and PCP).
The current projection of the results for Luís Montenegro (and it is important to say that an opinion poll is always a portrait of a time that has already passed), which manifests itself in the elections, would have only a parallel with the first elections for the Assembly of the Republic, in 1976, in which the PSD obtained 24.4%. Coincidence or not, at the time there was a CDS on the right of the Social Democrats that was worth 16%, exactly the same as what André Ventura Chega is now pointing out.
BE loses breath
From the stage, the party that stands out most is the Bloco de Esquerda. Although the economy has lost momentum since July (the first survey under the new leader, Mariana Mortágua, predicted 8%), it is still two points above the results of the last parliamentary elections. The same value as this research adds to the PAN. But it is worth adding that the party, led by Inês Sousa Real, almost always registers large swings, a sign of a lack of conviction among its potential voters.
Yet the PAN once again surpasses the CDU (the electoral coalition of communists), which falls to the worst result of the year, almost two points lower than the 2022 parliamentary elections, which had already been the worst in its long history. Further on is Livre by Rui Tavares, which was above three points at the beginning of this year; and Nuno Melo’s CDS, which does not rise from the percentages. However, the centrists will return to Parliament if it is confirmed that the agreement with the PSD guarantees them two deputies.
If we take into account the poll’s ‘margin of error’, which is around 3.5%, anything is possible for the parties at the bottom of the table, in the worst and best sense. And it is necessary to take into account other unpredictability factors that affect everyone, large and small: the percentage of undecided people (4.5%) and the 22% of respondents who only finally decide on their vote ‘after the elections’. Finally, this sample indicates an abstention rate of 22%, while we know that in the 2022 parliamentary elections among Portuguese living in the national territory it was 42%.
The majority defends government agreements
There will be no absolute majority (68%), so PS or PSD will have to seek support from other parties.
The Portuguese do not believe that there will be an absolute majority (68%) in the elections of March 10 next year. And they argue, perhaps for this reason, that both the PSD (61%) and the PS (55%) are moving towards post-electoral agreements or coalitions with other parties, according to a survey by Aximage for the DN, JN and TSF.
Although the Socialists are currently the main favorites to win the parliamentary elections (they have a nine-point lead), in the event of a Social Democrats victory there will be greater support for a government agreement, especially among the those who vote in PSD and Chega (81%).
The preferred partner for Luís Montenegro is, unsurprisingly, the CDS (56%), with which, as has become apparent in recent days, he will form a coalition for the elections. In second place comes the Liberal Initiative (47%) and only after that is Chega (34%). The result of the total sample is comparable to the percentage of PSD voters who also defend a coalition with André Ventura’s party (37%).
If the PS wins the elections without a majority, enthusiasm among voters for a coalition with other parties is generally lower (55%). Because the enthusiasm of socialist voters (63%) for this solution is also lower, compared to those who vote for the social democrats, as seen above.
To accompany Pedro Nuno Santos in a government solution, the preferred partner of the Portuguese is the Bloco de Esquerda (57%), then the PCP (38%) and, in third place, Livre (32%). Again no surprise. For socialist voters the order is the same.
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 805 effective interviews: 688 online interviews and 117 telephone interviews; 390 men and 415 women; 174 between 18 and 34 years, 209 between 35 and 49 years, 230 between 50 and 64 years and 192 for people over 65; Norte 277, Centro 175, Sul e Ilhas 122, AM Lisboa 231. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between December 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 72.22%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
