A little music that rises without convincing. The Elysee could well brandish the threat of a dissolution again this Sunday in the JDDthe presidential majority does not imagine it imminent.
“I don’t believe a word of it. The French wouldn’t understand if they were forced to vote again 6 months after the presidential and legislative elections,” François Patriat, president of the Renaissance group in the Senate, confesses to BFMTV. com.
A warning from the president
However, it is Emmanuel Macron who has put his foot on the plate in the last weeks of September. During a dinner at the presidential palace, in full arbitration on the modalities to adopt the extension of the retirement age, he launched against the heavyweights of the macronie:
“If there is a motion of censure that is voted on, I immediately dissolve it.”
In the absence of an absolute majority and while the approval of a text on pensions is far from being evident, the message goes down very quickly among the deputies of the presidential majority, doubtful.
No more elected RNs, “nothing appropriate”
And with good reason: the RN, which landed in force in the chamber last June with 89 deputies, would emerge stronger from a dissolution of the Assembly, with the prospect of 21% of the votes collected against 19.2% last June, according to an Ifop-Fiducial Survey.
Far from giving the president an edge by securing a larger number of elected officials than is currently the case, most would see their number of seats stagnant.
“Running the risk of having more elected RNs would not be appropriate at all. France has everything to lose if it sees them enter the National Assembly in even greater numbers,” defends the group’s vice president Anne Genetet.
A dissolution in case of “blockade” in the hemicycle
Another reason for the skepticism of the troops of the presidential majority: the legislative context. If Elisabeth Borne has appealed to 49.3 on 4 occasions on budget texts, she has so far managed to get all her other bills approved by vote. The Government also hopes to convince widely about the future text on immigration or unemployment insurance.
“The dissolution would only be conceivable in a context of blockade. However, it is not like that at all ”, summarizes in broad strokes his colleague, Marc Ferraci, number 2 of the Renaissance deputies at the Palais-Bourbon.
The party was “asked to be ready”
If the hypothesis leaves parliamentarians skeptical, like the ministers Olivier Véran, Gérald Darmanin and Marc Fesneau, who denied this option, however, it is well prepared by the knowledge of the BFMTV.com party, which confirms the information of the JDD.
“They asked us to be ready. We don’t know the president’s intention, nor a possible timetable, but we have worked on the legal, financial and political aspect of the issue,” explains Loïc Signor, the party’s spokesman.
A dissolution between “January 2023 and May 2024”
To deal with this eventuality, a schedule has already been established, establishing the procedure to follow to win these new legislative elections, including the announcement of the sworn-in candidates, press conferences and training.
“The truth is that we all know that we will disband at some point, but not now. It will probably be between retirement and the European elections between January 2023 and May 2024. We could well prepare for it as best we can, ”advances a deputy near the Elysee.
Renaissance deputies in “permanent campaign”
The latter also explains that the threats to disband Emmanuel Macron are aimed above all at conveying political messages. Starting with their own deputies. Before the summer vacation, the president had already asked them to be “on a permanent campaign.”
“The message is clear: keep doing the groundwork, vote on the texts, in short, do the job without hesitation,” explains Yvelines MP Karl Olive.
Although the amendments were approved with the votes of Renaissance during the review of the budget, contrary to the opinion of Bercy, the maneuver is intended to remind the deputies of the loyalty that is expected of them by the presidency.
“A test of impotence” for the LR
But the possibility of a dissolution also sends a clear message to Republicans, without whom the possibility of adopting texts in the National Assembly is seriously complicated.
Having managed to elect 63 deputies – an unexpected number after a catastrophic presidential election – the LRs have no desire to return to the voters. What pushes them to vote for the texts defended by the majority to avoid any legislative blockade. The calculation that does not please the right, in the middle of the race for its internal presidency, tries to be cleared up.
“Some see it as a threat. I prefer to consider Emmanuel Macron’s words as evidence of impotence. He will soon not have many cards up his sleeve and will only be able to use a single last 49.3 ”, remarks the vice president of the party. and MP Annie Genevard.
Discouraging “the slingers”
Finally, some see Elysian’s remarks as a passing warning to the president’s allies, sometimes too restless for Emmanuel Macron’s liking. The Modem defended and passed a super dividend tax amendment, against the advice of Bruno Le Maire in October. Last July, Horizons played its own score by voting for an increase in allocations to communities.
“We tell them: ‘don’t play rebellion’ or it will turn against you”, deciphers Senator François Patriat.
Will all these warnings bear fruit on the floor? Answer in a few weeks with the thorny renewable energy bill that should show if the president’s word has had an effect.
Source: BFM TV
