Could the wheel turn for François Bayrou? After being successful where Michel Barnier failed to achieve a budget adopted last January in a very flammable political context, the spectrum of censorship has returned in recent days.
In an attempt to avoid the threat, the prime minister decided to play Card on Tuesday morning at a press conference baptized as “Budget Alert Committee”, taking the opinion of the opinion.
“Only an awareness of our fellow citizens, only the confrontation with the eyes open with the truth of our situation, can support a certain action,” said Fraçois Bayrou, judging that France was “in front of a mountain of difficulties.”
Public spending “does not happiness”
If the tone wanted to be serious, it is because the potion of state and social security budgets promises to be very bitter. If they will not reach the hemicycle until the next fall, the government is already preparing the spirits for difficult arbitrations.
Where Eric Lombard, the Minister of the Economy announced this Sunday in BFMTV his desire to make 40 billion euros in savings, the prime minister placed the Bar Association even more, announcing “an effort of about 3 billion euros”, without an increase in taxes considered “unsustainable.”
If “the big options” will be made in the expenses that will be reduced and the new fiscal income will be offered before July 14, the clues on the table, from the disinxation of pensions to inflation to a possible new unemployment insurance reform, already angry on the left.
“The excess of public spending does not make citizens happy,” he defended the prime minister, regretting that “to simply speak, the French do not have for their money.”
Impossible to sustain without the socialists
So many words that do not go to the left. Even before the Press Conference of François Bayrou, the socialist deputy Jérôme Groedj judged in the public Senate this Tuesday morning that “would not escape the negotiation” with the left at risk if not “is exposed to serious disappointments.”
“You know, the prime minister can fall in May in the Public Finance Programming Law,” said his colleague Philippe Brun, Vice President PS of the Finance Committee in the National Assembly with BFMTV.com.
Without the 66 socialist deputies with whom the Head of Government had reached an agreement last winter for the budget to adopt, impossible for the prime minister to remain in Matignon.
“The auctions go up”
The common basis that brings together deputies LR, Modem, Horizons and Renaissance only has 211 elected officials, far from the 289 necessary to guarantee the vote of finance law.
“The socialists will raise the auctions, it is obvious. It is the basis of any negotiation, even more when you have someone weak against you,” details a ministerial advisor who closely follows the future budget arbitrations.
François Bayrou must also carefully look at what is happening in the National Rally and its 140 deputies.
“If the project asks the French to press their belts without the State being on the path of economies in terms of immigration, we will use ourselves to censor it,” said the vice president of RN Sébastien Chenu in CNews-Europe 1 this Monday.
Optimism in Matignon
But for the moment of the Matignon side, time is not worrying, and we judge, on the contrary, the will of François Bayrou to play Card on the table can allow him to maintain.
“I don’t see the deputies censor him in autumn,” says one of his loved ones, for whom Matignon “does everything to put the deputies in the coup.”
If the prime minister shows his trust, it is because several elements play in his favor, starting with the municipal elections in March 2026. The Socialists, who play very great for this election, will they have the heart of overthrowing the centrist, only a few months of age who promise to be very complicated with the rebel France of conquests?
“When you want to show that you are responsible, unlike LFI agents, do not defeat the table before going to voters,” wants to believe a deputy of the Renaissance.
Pompidou’s hypothesis
The same mole for the National Rally (RN) that also showed its ambitions to win municipalities. The flame festival can be at least payable for the luxury of the censor François Bayrou in case of possible determined dissolution following its resignation by Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen cannot appear to new legislative elections.
The president of the deputies RN was sentenced at the end of March to an immediate execution judgment that prevents him from presenting himself to any election within 5 years. However, she called.
And even if the censorship scenario took place, by combining the forces of the entire left and the RN as in November for Michel Barnier, “Emmanuel Macron would repeat him in his post”, he wants to believe a relative of François Bayrou.
The story has arrived in 1962 when Georges Pompidou had been censored by the National Assembly. The prime minister had certainly presented his resignation to President Charles de Gaulle, but then rejected it.
However, the general had pronounced a few days later the dissolution of the National Assembly before obtaining the absolute majority, to take the elections and renew Georges Pompidou in Matignon.
“François Bayrou has been very lucky since his arrival in Matignon. He believes that his high star will continue to follow him and know his history of France very well,” a attached modem smiles.
Source: BFM TV
