Reconquest operation. Relatively discreet in the French scene in recent months, with the exception of delivery trips, omnipresent in the international scene, Emmanuel Macron wants to recover control almost eleven months after the fiasco of the solution. In the menu: an interview in TF1 in unprecedented format to evoke “the challenges of France” as probably its latest important measures before its Elysée departure in the spring of 2027.
• One or more referendums? Yes but …
First topic on the table: the organization of one or even several referendums, the same day. Regularly soft by the Head of State in recent years, mentioned again during his wishes to the French on December 31, the organization of a great consultation of the French should probably be announced by the president.
Will your steps take in François Bayrou? The prime minister explained that he wanted to organize a referendum about the recovery of public finances last April. The method aims to give air to the Tenant of Matignon who knows how to risk censorship during the next state and social security budget next autumn.
In case of the French agreement to reduce public spending, it would become very complicated so that the National Assembly defeats the Head of Government, ensuring the centrist the maintenance in his position. But in Macronie, not many people do not believe in this hypothesis.
“I do not see it go to this land simply because the Constitutional Council could say that not a referendum this issue,” explains a deputy of the Renaissance.
And for a good reason: article 34 of the specifically constitution that is in Parliament “determine the resources and positions of the State.”
Another test ball of François Bayrou that could be fired: a referendum about retirement. The idea launched by the prime minister last February had angered the social partners, met in conclave to “improve” the reform of the transition to 64 years.
“In retrospect, it will probably be the only great reform of its second term of five years. It is Niet to touch it, even less in a context in which we look for savings everywhere,” decipher a ministerial advisor.
In the Assembly, many mention the issue of several referendums that could organize the same day “with very worrying issues”, such as the prohibition of screens or telephones for the youngest, already mentioned by the head of state during a press conference in January 2024 and then in June 2024.
Another issue potentially on the table: the organization of a referendum on local authorities to simplify the different levels of responsibility.
“It seems a bit difficult, but when you explain to people that it would be good if schools and garbage will be administered by the same people to cost less and be more effective, he speaks to them,” says a macronista senator.
As for consulting the French in the opening with active help to die, not a great world believes it. “We are discussing the National Assembly about this, it would still be very strange,” says a deputy committed to the archive. Not to mention that the president has already organized a citizen convention in this area.
• In full unemployment explosion, the probable defense of companies
Second subject on the table: the waterfall of social plans in recent months, from Jennyfer to Vecorex through Arceormittal or Auchan. The number of employment applicants has registered a strong increase in recent months (+3.9% for people without activity).
Such an increase is unknown during a decade outside the COVVI-19 crisis. What Emmanuel Macron’s evaluation greatly amputates, who has continued in recent years to highlight his balance in terms of employment.
“He does not have his hand on this. All this is Bercy, but I think he will make a plea to say that you have to continue being a pro-company land and especially not increase taxes for companies,” summarizes a former minister LR.
The state budget in 2025 used the most profitable companies that received a turnover exceeding one billion euros such as LVMH or EDF. Enough to bring eight billion euros back to the boxes.
If the Minister of the Economy has already explained in BFMTV that the system “will not be renewed” as it is, it is very likely that the participation of the most profitable companies in the national effort will be raised again in the coming months.
Last October, Emmanuel Macron had already asked that this device be “limited” over time. We must “not recharge” to companies because “we do not have large margins of tax maneuvers,” said the Head of State after François Bayrou’s general policy speech. It is enough to say that the president is likely to remember that he opposes an increase with the time of the most profitable companies.
• Haro on taxes?
Third Hot Archive: The possible issue of an increase in taxes on the French to try to straighten public finances. A true Casus Belli for the head of state that eliminated the television rate so much, while reducing taxes for the richest.
“We have not stopped trying to reduce taxes at a time when people lived better. We will not increase them while everyone pays attention to their wallet. The president will probably only remember common sense,” said a deputy of the Renaissance.
At the moment, there is no increase in VAT or income tax, paid in half of French taxpayers. But the deduxation of retirement pensions, as well as the end of the fiscal allocation for retirees, remain in a corner of the Chief of François Bayrou, such as the “modest contribution” to finance the public services of the municipalities defended by its Minister of Communities François Rebsamen.
As for the exceptional contribution for the richest voted last January, which affects the singles of 250,000 euros per year and 500,000 euros for a couple, it is likely to be perpetuated.
“I think he will say that you must be careful with all this without going too far in detail. He still has a bad memory of the CSG for retirees,” recalls a former Renaissance deputy. After increasing it in 2018 for part of the retirees, the head of state had finally retreated.
• Towards the request for a new increase in the defense budget
Fourth burning archive: The international scene, more than 100 days after Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Emmanuel Macron is expected to return to the issue of customs tasks used by the American billionaire for a long time and that many French export sectors could weigh, such as wine, car or aeronautics. At the moment, European goods are attacked by additional customs duties of 20%.
If inflation has fallen in the euro zone in recent months, while they remain high, commercial tensions can mention it.
“It will probably remember that all this could clearly increase prices in France and that it will continue to fight at European level,” says an attached modem, a good expert in economic questions.
“I can see it by passing that everyone who says we would go better without the European Union are becoming less intelligent at this time,” said this elected official, pointing to the national demonstration.
As for the truce project between Russia and Ukraine, on the table from the visit of the Head of State and other of his European counterparts in kyiv last weekend, he should give grain to grind Emmanuel Macron to argue an increase in the defense budget.
François Bayrou confirmed last April an additional effort of 3 billion euros in 2026. Will the head of state defend an even more important figure, in particular in case of a reinsurance force in the field with “a character of deterrence with respect to a possible Russian aggression”, as he had explained last March during a meeting in Paris around Thirty Country?
The question arises, as well as the precise scheme of this device. How many soldiers should be sent when most European countries fight to recruit for their armies? What materials use? Who to order and with what mandate? Many answers expected by the European partners of France if the truce between Kyiv and Moscow takes shape.
Source: BFM TV
