The promise of the Emmanuel Macron campaign in 2017 and then in 2022, the proportional to the legislative elections will finally see daylight? In any case, it is the intention of François Bayrou. After launching consultations with the political forces, the prime minister announced Tuesday in BFMTV that “he would offer the National Assembly to examine this issue.”
The Head of Government, who defends this new voting system for years, has presented the contours you want for this voting system with multiple possible variants. You want to use the methods used in 1986 for the only choice in proportional used under the fifth Republic.
An assembly today very crumbled
Today, each voter votes in the district where he lives to choose a deputy who represents his territory. To be chosen in the first round, it is necessary to gather more than 50 % of the votes cast that represent at least 25 % of the voters registered in the electoral lists.
If that does not happen, only 76 candidates have has been chosen in this case during the last legislative elections – It is necessary to gather at least 12.5% of the number of registered voters to qualify in the second round. To be finally chosen, you must obtain at least 50% in the second round.
Chamboulle-Aall criteria
The proportional would deeply change the situation. This voting system allows you to distribute the seats according to the percentage obtained by each party with a single round. If François Bayrou decides to present the voting system used in 1986, the representation threshold would be established at 5%. Specifically, a list that would collect less than 5% of the votes could not enter the National Assembly.
In 1986, the vote was also organized in a departmental way. This means that all deputies would now be distributed according to the results obtained by each list at the departmental level instead of depending on their score in each district.
More specifically, the way of example, the Northern Department had chosen in 2024 21 deputies, through 21 constituencies. In the 1986 model, these 21 deputies are chosen from the departmental lists of political parties, depending on the scores received during the vote.
Finally, the prime minister explained in our antenna “not wanting premium the first”, which is called a majority premium. This expression means that part of the deputies of the deputies is reserved for the list reaching the boss at the end of the legislative elections. This calculation is already used for municipal elections to more easily release majority.
The RN very reinforced with the proportional
With the terms presented by the Head of Government, BFMTV.com simulated the result of an election in proportional based on the results of the first round of the legislative elections in the summer of 2024.
Specifically, the national demonstration would be largely reinforced by this new voting system with 79 more deputies. He would count 219 elected officials integrating Eric Ciotti’s troops against 139.
All other parties would leave this new voting system, starting with the Republicans who are considered in a position of force from the victory of Bruno Retailleau at the head of their movement. While they are currently 67, their number would increase to 22.
As for the union of the left that currently has 192 deputies, it would collect 176 deputies. It is difficult to give details of the representation of the rebel, environmental, communist and socialist forces, based on a distribution of the constantly t.
The same mole for the presidential camp. Renaissance, Horizons and Modem currently have 163 deputies. After the proportional, the deputies who would be presented under the label together that gather all these forces, would only have 115 deputies.
Without absolute majority, very complicated agreements
Another teaching of this simulation: the absolute majority of the surveys would not come out. The RN, largely in mind with 219 votes, would have several possibilities. He could decide to seek text agreements by text with the various political forces, which was used so that Prime Minister Seasbeth was transmitted from 2022 to 2024.
The calculation is not impossible, but it is still complicated. At the moment, the very rare local agreements have been established in the 1990s. Recently, Éric Ciotti, then president of the LR, could not take his deputies with him in favor of an agreement with Marine Le Pen in the summer of 2024.
Another possibility: establish an agreement with other movements. But arithmetic makes this strategy complicated. The 22 LR deputies would not be enough. As for an alliance with the Renaissance or the PFN, it seems very unlikely. Therefore, this configuration could lead to an absence of legislative texts for months, due to lack of sufficient support in the hemicycle.
The risk of political instability
Regarding the issue of the state budget and Social Security, it is difficult to imagine that the RN reaches an agreement on such symbolic texts. Therefore, the movement would be forced to extract article 49.3 of the Constitution to adopt them without vote. But the maneuver would open the way to censorship motions in a disaster with the risk of giving up the prime minister.
In this case, the country would be without a budget, as was the case last December with the resignation of Michel Barnier. The scenario could lead to a new solution in the hope of freeing the majority and finding a budget.
But the spectrum of political instability would continue to run, with the risk of almost permanent. However, nothing would prevent deputies from going back and returning to the current voting system.
Source: BFM TV
