An delivery air 365 days after the solution. Since Emmanuel Macron summoned the legislative elections last June to everyone’s surprise, the head of state created a great political disorder.
A more fragmented national assembly than ever, drafts of laws that have become rare primary ministers that can fall at any time … the balance of the dissolution gives to the dizzy figures and in support.
• Three prime ministers
First disorder: the faces of the prime ministers. Between the announcement of the dissolution of June 9 and 2024 and this June 9, 2025, no less than three men followed in Matignon. It was Gabriel Attal who was the first to pay the price of the Head of State.
After sending the “current issues” for almost 8 weeks, a record in the fifth republic, thirty -many passes the torch to Michel Barnier in early September.
This old path of Republicans will only remain 90 days at the head of the Government, fell in favor of a motion of censure on the Social Security Budget in December. Finally, it is François Bayrou who recovers his position, who has dreamed him for years. It depends on him to keep at least until the fall of 2025 and adopt the state budget.
This game of musical chairs may not be new, its speed is not preceded in the fifth republic. Between 2017 and 2022, Emmanuel Macron had only two prime ministers with Édouard Phillippe and Jean Castex. François Hollande, on the other hand, told three prime ministers during his five-year term (Jean-Marc Ayrault, Manuel Valls and Bernard Cazeneuve).
As for Nicolas Sarkozy, he worked for five years with François Fillon. Jacques Chirac worked between 2002 and 2007 with two prime ministers (Jean-Pierre Raffarin and Dominique de Vilepin).
• eleven parliamentary groups
Second consequence of dissolution: a national assembly more fragmented than ever. With eleven parliamentary groups, the Palais-Bourbon broke a record that is only new from 2017 and 2022 with ten groups.
The most important group, which is not precedents, is the national rally that has 126 deputies, 38 more than before dissolution. In 2017, the RN had not even been able to build a group, for lack of the 15 necessary people.
This collapse of the National Assembly has direct consequences, which involve making alliances and commitments on merits to try to adopt texts. It was thanks to an agreement with the Socialists to reopen the discussions among social couples about the pensions that François Bayrou managed to have state and social security budgets adopted last January.
It is also because the right ministers and their 49 deputies support the centrist who can keep his position.
• Only four large -scale invoices
The dissolution also inclined barium in political life in the National Assembly. In recent months, numerous proposals of laws, presented on the initiative of the deputies, have been voted on all the issues about the French as It helps die In more anecdotal points such as Recognition of hair discrimination.
But these texts often have very few chances of applying specifically, due to lack of will in the Senate, with most of the right. Only the government can really have a concrete action on the life of the French with invoices. But each bill offers the possibility that the oppositions present a motion of censure to the way, which pushes Matignon to limit the risks.
The test with Michel Barnier, who worked only in the state budget and social security and some very secondary texts during his passage, expresses in Matignon.
François Bayrou is taking the same slope. Only an important bill presented by the Prime Minister after having voted the Budgets: the Emergency Law Project for Mayotte and the Simplification Law of the Economic Life that has ended remarkably the low -issuance areas (ZFE), to the Government dam.
However, the prime minister weakened politically, directly supported several proposals of laws such as those of Senator LR Laurent Dubumbing, which points in particular to reintroduce certain dangerous pestides for bees such as neonicotinoids to “raise limitations to the exercise of the farmer’s profession.”
In a year in Matignon, Elisabeth was, that he would face an absence of an absolute majority, he had made 13 texts, several of which are important, such as two invoices about purchasing power, in renewable energies or in the recovery of nuclear.
• Already 8 censorship motions in a year
Seven against François Bayrou, who still remains in office six months after his appointment, only one against Michel Barnier who will have abandoned it … In a year, the censorship motions that aim to renounce the prime minister and the government have multiplied. Never in the history of the fifth Republic, this tool has been used both in time or against a person.
As a comparison, Pierre Bérégovoy must return with 7 censorship movements in almost a year between 1992 and 1993 to find equivalence. Michel Rocard, who had remained in Matignon 3 years between 1988 and 1991, had to face 6 in him Great climate of distrust with its own camp.
For the government to fall, it must succeed that the motion of censure can obtain at least 289 votes. On paper, the calculation is not complicated. By adding the voices of the entire left and those of the RN and its allies, 334 voices are obtained. However, it remains to have the same interests.
While the Marine Le Pen camp demands a new solution in autumn, which could cause the fall of François Bayrou, the Socialists, they could have an interest in stability as the municipal approaches next March.
At the moment, the track of a new call of voters, again possible as provided in the Constitution, does not seem to be on the agenda. Emmanuel Macron expressed regrets in the middle of a word, judging that the dissolution “had brought more divisions to the assembly at the moment than the solutions” during their wishes on December 31.
Source: BFM TV
