And if? What would happen if Emmanuel Macron decided once again dissolve the National Assembly, more than a year after taking France using this constitutional power on the night of the European elections?
The question arises this Tuesday, August 26, the day after the François Bayrou Press Conference on Budget and Debt.
When announcing on this occasion that he would request a vote of confidence on September 8 at the National Assembly, the prime minister opened the door to his departure and, therefore, to new institutional shakes. Additional flights for an executive already largely weakened.
Especially from the various oppositions, which cannot happen, not having an absolute majority, they already promise a vote against this election. From there to imagine a solution, he claimed the extreme right, there is a step away from being crossed, for the moment.
Emmanuel Macron “will not be deprived a priori of constitutional power”
Last Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron said he did not consider this stage in an interview with Paris Match. An unchanged position at this stage. “But it will not be deprived of a constitutional power a priori,” said the president of the president on Tuesday in BFMTV.
Some in his camp do not fire him completely, including François Bayrou, who spoke with him last Thursday.
“The president does not want it, but in any case the solution remains a hypothesis,” he told representatives of the common base this Tuesday morning in Matignon. Invited by TF1, Gérald Darmanin, who had declared for such a decision in 2024, also explained:
“Dissolution is expensive for France, of course, but this hypothesis should not be ruled out.”
An unlikely scenario?
“If Mr. Bayrou is overturned, it is a cause, a justification for a solution, it is the logic of the parliamentary system. But it is still necessary that the President of the Republic wants to do so,” Advance the Constitutionalist Didier Maus. “It has no obligations (at the constitutional level, note of the editor).”
Making that decision “seems to be a bit complicated,” according to his colleague Anne-Charlène Bezzina, also a specialist in the constitutional and guest of BFMTV this Tuesday morning.
“The dissolution (leading) again a legislative election a few weeks before the municipal elections (scheduled for March 2025). We tell ourselves: what clarifications will we obtain without a government, without a budget, without the National Assembly?” He said.
What assembly in case of early legislative elections?
In addition, nothing says that Emmanuel Macron really has an interest in dissolving politically, since he could lead to a new defeat of his camp and an assembly similar to the result of the legislative elections of 2024.
“We are in impossible scenarios. No one believes that Insumise France and his friends would get the majority. In addition, would the national rally be powerful enough to become a truly dominant party? No one can say it,” said Didier Maus.
A comment backed by an Elabe survey for BFMTV, made last June. The latter gave the following voting intentions for a first round of legislative elections: 32.5% for the national rally and its ally Éric Ciotti; 21% for a united left; 15.5% for the presidential camp and 10% for the Les Républicins party.
In 2024, the extreme right had obtained a similar score in the first round, before not obtaining an absolute majority due to a republican front in front of it.
Source: BFM TV
