Who would be qualified in the second round if the presidential elections will be held next Sunday? A IFOP fiduciary survey for Opinion and Sud Radio Places, this Monday, September 29, the national demonstration in the ultra favorite position for the first round of the race by the Elysée planned in a year and a half.
Regardless of the six proven hypotheses, and if Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, in case of an impediment of the first city, the flame party candidate continues permanently at the top of the votes, between 33 and 35% of the voting intentions. A score that would be ten points higher than the fact by Marine Le Pen in the first round in 2022 (23.15%).
Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann in the elbow, Mélenchon just behind
A great advantage that leaves behind the field open to a qualification with a historically low score for adhesion to the second round of the elections. Because behind, three candidates could claim this second place according to this survey.
Regardless of the proven hypothesis, be it Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella opposite, the trio that follows the frontist camp is the same: Édouard Philippe (16%, as a candidate only at the common base), Raphaël Glucksmann (15%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12%).
If Marine Le Pen described with more than 23% of the votes in 2022, the second happy in 2027 could be with a much lower threshold, well below 20%.
An unpopular president who torpedo his own camp
With 17% of favorable opinions in September according to IFOP, Emmanuel Macron registered a clear decrease compared to July (19%) of the French who declared themselves satisfied with their action as president of the Republic, but also against 25% in May and 23% in June.
An inexorable fall, which carries with it the possible candidates emanating from their camp. The attraction for Édouard Philippe has only fallen in recent weeks, the same IFOP survey held in April still positioned it around 22% of the voting intentions.
Two other hypotheses tested on Monday place Gabriel Attal at 10% and Gérald Darmanin with 7%, transmitted in fifth position in the classification behind Bruno Retilleau.
It is not surprising, therefore, to see these personalities gradually from the Head of State in recent months. If it was Édouard Philippe who described, in an interview with Legend on September 22, Emmanuel Macron as a man “too daring” led him not to respect the institutions “, especially during a solution of the National Assembly” fatal and absurd “.
Or Gabriel Attal, who also tries to deviate a little more from Emmanuel Macron. In particular, he released a “reflection” in the change of name of the Renaissance (nth) in early August. He also criticized the decision of the solution, judged as “the main origin of this political instability.”
For the presidential camp, the hypothesis of François Bayrou’s candidacy was also tested. In such a scenario, the former prime minister would only collect 3% of the votes.
On the left side, fractured between two fields, Raphaël Glucksmann and Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be in the elbow. The first fluctuates between 14 and 16%, while the leader of the rebel France is measured at 12 or 13% depending on the hypotheses. Proven in a single stage, Olivier Faure would limit 7%.
The study was carried out online from September 24 to 25, 2025, with a sample of 1,127 people registered in the electoral lists, extracted from a sample of 1,210 people, representative of the French population of 18 years or more, according to the quota method.
Source: BFM TV
