The 36 hours of the last chance. Following the resignation of Sébastien Lecornu, Emmanuel Macron asked his now resigned prime minister to launch “final negotiations” that “define a platform of action and stability for the country.”
Specifically, blame the one who remains for the moment in which the tenant of Matignon has tried to bring together these political parties this Tuesday around the table. The objective is mainly an agreement on the state and social security budget in a very tense financial context.
A “miraculous” way out of the crisis
However, the date to succeed where he failed during an entire month in office is short: Wednesday night.
“It will be miraculous that he is doing something,” acknowledges Michel Barnier’s former health minister, Frédéric Valletoux (Horizons), with BFMTV.
“There is a small side ‘that we rewind and delete everything’, but politics doesn’t work like that,” laments one of Emmanuel Macron’s relatives.
In the event of failure, it is very likely that the negotiations, it is promised, the president “will take responsibility”, as specified by a press release from the Elysée. The very vague formula has the merit of being able to be understood in many different ways.
Dissolve?
First hypothesis: If no non-censorship agreement is concluded this Wednesday night, the president could press the dissolution button again. The gesture will have something to give nightmares to the deputies of the Renaissance.
Several polls published in the summer argued that the Macronists could return with several elected officials divided by two. Before the dissolution in the summer of 2024, the presidential camp had 169 deputies. It only counts 91. Suffice it to say that the new legislative elections could be approved under the mark of 50.
As for the LRS that caused the fall of Sébastien Lecornu by making the appointment of Bruno Le Maire to the armies a Casus Belli while regretting being assigned only three ministries, a return to the polls would not have anything of a sinita. In short, Emmanuel Macron wants to put pressure on them to find an agreement that will allow them not to have to go back to the voters.
“He puts pressure on the deputies by telling them that the solution is in their hands. Without an agreement, it is likely that we will have a new assembly. We cannot say that we have not been warned,” says François Patriat, president of the Renaissance senators.
“Pay the price of the crisis”
The warning also applies to the socialists who judged that the only concession accepted by Sébastien Lecornu, renunciation of the activation of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, was not enough to agree not to censor it.
Olivier Faure’s troops constantly demanded concessions that “hurt” to use the expression of PS Deputy Laurent Baumel. The Rose Party has called for the suspension of the pension reform for weeks or the creation of a wealth tax of more than 100 million euros, carried by Gabriel Zucman.
“The specter of dissolution must allow everyone to come out of denial. We cannot continue to camp in positions and not pay the price of the crisis,” he still judges a resigning ministerial advisor.
The method also has the advantage of returning the responsibility to its own opponents, but nevertheless convincing to a large extent.
It was he as head of state who gave birth to this extremely fragmented National Assembly with the last dissolution. However, new legislative elections might not resolve anything if the new face of Palais bourbon looked like what already exists, avoiding an absolute majority or at least agreements.
Pushed towards the exit of Édouard Philippe
Second hypothesis to justify the time given to political parties to find a last chance agreement: find a solution that allows you to reduce the pressure.
Some exploit some ideas, starting with his cousins former minister Édouard Philippe. The owner of Horizons, with whom relations are frozen, came out of the woodwork this Tuesday morning calling on Emmanuel Macron to “an early presidential election” once the 2026 budget is adopted in the National Assembly.
Concretely, this would mean that the President would make a commitment in the coming days to leave the Elysée at the beginning of next year, pushing the opposition to agree on a budget base.
Could the little music really inspire the head of state? Not even a big world does not believe in the presidential field, including the president of the Renaissance deputies Gabriel Attal, however, a little stingy direct to the head of state in recent days.
“Les Dinguries”
A possible resignation seems much more likely as Emmanuel Macron had the opportunity on several occasions to explain that he would be leaving after his second five-year term.
“The problem is that nature and even more politics hate a vacuum. By not deciding, by not speaking, it leaves room for all the nonsense. We will have to decide on the spot in a moment,” observes a former LR minister.
Would this waiting time be preparing the spirits and in particular the right to a prime minister on the left? The ad would have it all. Until now, despite a partnership with the latest legislative elections that put the new popular front in the second round, Emmanuel Macron has always refused.
“To name the left, that would mean that it agrees to make very large concessions in a context where no one wants to take responsibility. It is very unlikely,” observes Bruno Millienne, former advisor to François Bayrou,
The referendum, the definitive solution?
The question of a possible referendum could also arise to try to get out of the molasses. The idea was left this Monday by Valérie Pécresse, the LR president of the île de-France region. It would then take him time to find the right question to ask the French, allowing him to regain control and unravel the political situation for at least a few weeks.
When François Bayrou was in Matignon, the centrist had mentioned the possibility of a referendum on the recovery of public finances, quickly swept aside by the head of state. Could the president change his mind, allowing a debate that puts the issue of savings or new tax tracks for the richest on the table?
During his wishes on December 31, Emmanuel Macron had promised to ask the French to “decide” to “determine the subjects.” The subject is now standing. Will the next 36 hours change the situation or will the president still choose to delay? Not speaking is currently not planned.
“The problem is that we still start from the principle that the president can develop the situation. I still believed in it a while ago, but there, I see less and less how we are doing it, except to make a clean table,” confesses a Macronist.
Source: BFM TV
