The trend is confirmed: for the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2027, unless Emmanuel Macron resigns before then, the far right is widely favored.
On the contrary, the second qualifying place for the second round could be decided by few things. These are the lessons of the Toluna Harris Interactive survey published for RTL this Wednesday, October 8, which confirms the results of recent studies.
Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen: RN’s great favorite
The National Rally, represented by its president Jordan Bardella or by its usual candidate, Marine Le Pen, sentenced to a sentence of ineligibility in the first instance in the matter of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front (ex-RN), crushed the party in the first round.
Tested according to two different hypotheses, one with Édouard Philippe as a representative of the presidential field and the other with Gabriel Attal, the supposed RN candidates obtained respectively 35% and 34% of the votes in each scenario, relegating them well behind Emmanuel Macron’s two former prime ministers.
Édouard Philippe resists better than Gabriel Attal
Édouard Philippe, who called early presidential elections this Tuesday, is favored by 15% of those surveyed over Jordan Bardella and barely surpasses Marine Le Pen (16%).
Gabriel Attal, whose break with Emmanuel Macron was definitively characterized this Monday, is in greater difficulties with 12% of the votes in each hypothesis.
These candidacies will be put to the test in the event that Bruno Retailleau also enters the race for the Elysée. The resigned Interior Minister and head of the Les Républicains party receives between 10 and 11% of voting intentions. He captured some of Emmanuel Macron’s voters in the first round of the 2022 presidential elections, managing to convince between 16 and 20% of them.
Logical consequence: neither Édouard Philippe nor Gabriel Attal are filling their voters. Only 44 or 49% give preference to the first, while 37 or 38% opt for the second.
Marine Le Pen, who came second in the 2022 presidential election, performed much better (86 to 87%). Like the leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (65 to 69%), who finished in third place.
Undecided second place, duel on the left
Also ahead of the extreme right, the former socialist senator is well placed to qualify for the second round, ahead of Gabriel Attal and not far behind Édouard Philippe, with 14% of voting intentions for all hypotheses.
But the left is far from winning the game. Thus, Raphaël Glucksmann competes with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, obtaining 12% of the votes in the case of Édouard Philippe’s candidacy and 14% if Gabriel Attal represents the presidential side.
Please note that the co-president of the Place Publique is not polled in the presence of a Socialist Party candidacy. However, if the Fist and the Rose formation chose Raphaël Glucksmann to represent it in the last European elections, it asked him to participate in the left-wing primaries demanded by its first secretary Olivier Faure, indicating that otherwise a socialist could face him.
So far, Raphaël Glucksmann refuses to support this initiative, considering a duel with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Still on the left, the head of the environmentalists, Marine Tondelier, who also calls for primaries for the left-wing parties, obtains only 3% of the votes. The same goes for his communist counterpart, Fabien Roussel.
The survey was conducted online on October 7, 2025 following the reactions of Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal to the resignation of Sébastien Lecornu from his duties as Prime Minister. The study was carried out on a sample of 1,289 people, representative of the French population aged 18 or over, using the quota method.
Source: BFM TV
