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Can Lecornu’s government fall? Our vote count before examining the RN and LFI motions of censure

By accumulating the votes of the oppositions who have officially announced that they will vote in favor of censure of the government this Thursday, October 16, the latter is hanging by a thread. The voices of the rebels could condemn Sébastien Lecornu’s team.

A very close vote. The death or life of the Lecornu II government will be at stake this Thursday, October 16, when deputies will examine the two motions of censure presented by RN and LFI starting at 9 a.m.

And we must closely monitor the results of the two votes, particularly with regard to the motion of censure against the rebels, which will be voted on by both the left and the extreme right. Added to this are the rebel socialist deputies, LR or the Liot group who will come dangerously close to the fateful point of 289 deputies.

Who will vote for censure?

Adding the votes of rebel France (71 voters), of the group Democratic and Republican left (the communists, editor’s note, with 16/17 voters), Environmentalists (37/38 voters, deputy Delphine Batho announces her opposition) and those of national meeting and theUDR by Eric Ciotti (139/139 voters) the counter already shows 263 votes in favor. Still far from the 289 deputies needed to overthrow the government.

Who are the deputies who will vote in favor of censure on October 16, 2025. © BFMTV

But the executive is not saved from all that. Despite the official instructions of the parties, both the PS and the LR, some rebel deputies will vote in favor.

According to BFMTV counts, between five and eight socialist voters, two and five Republicans, one or two Liots and two and four unregistered, could change the outcome of the vote.

Who are the rebel deputies who will vote for censure on October 16, 2025.
Who are the rebel deputies who will vote in favor of censure on October 16, 2025. © BFMTV

The additional votes would, therefore, be between 10 and 19. Adding all the expected votes in favor of this motion of censure, the total would reach 282 deputies. Only seven votes would be needed to overthrow the government.

Author: Alixan Lavorel
Source: BFM TV

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