From the “majority” that is “not absolute power” to the “strong wind blowing in the face”: the 12 political phrases that marked 2022

“Absolute majority is not absolute power”. The phrase belongs to António Costa in the speech he gave on election night on January 31, which earned him an unexpected majority, achieving the stability he had asked for during the campaign. The door was then open for agreements between the government and other parties. Was there such an opening? “In terms of analysis, it was always difficult to communicate with the opposition. If we make a comparison with the previous legislature and that of 2015, this period has been more difficult since the January legislatures,” says Paula do Espírito Santo, professor and researcher at the Instituto Superior Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP) of the University of Lisbon.

According to the political scientist, 2022 was therefore mainly “a year of uncertainty, also from a political communicative point of view”.

For António Costa Pinto, a researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) of the University of Lisbon, “there were things that went less well and ultimately tarnished the image of the government”, whose action, he points out, “is been led by emergencies 90 percent of the time. First the covid-19 pandemic, now the war in Ukraine and its consequences”. Situations like those that arose “with the Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Pedro Nuno Santos about Lisbon Airport or the case of the Deputy Secretary of State”, Miguel Alves (who was expelled from the government after being accused of crimes when he was mayor of Caminha) “eventually influenced the action itself of the executive”. In the case of Pedro Nuno Santos, the government’s departure came after a new controversy, now linked to TAP, and the deputy’s name still does not exist.

Most change speech

Despite the controversies surrounding the government’s actions, both researchers agree in the analysis: the absolute majority was the political event of the year, which triggered a reconfiguration of Parliament, with the CDS no longer present in the chamber (“an extremely interesting one”, defines António Costa Pinto), while Chega and Iniciativa Liberal won parliamentary benches after being parties with only one deputy in the previous legislature – and all without new parties on the left of the PS.

According to António Costa Pinto, “Just as the PS did not expect an absolute majority, neither did the CDS expect to disappear from parliament”. This factor “ultimately empowers the PSD in the opposition, even to consolidate itself from the point of view of a political alternative, always in view of the other right-wing party with which it can form a coalition,” he analyzes. . On the other hand, adds Paula do Espírito Santo, “one would expect more taxing capacity from the CDS after the big impact of the legislature. the leader of the parliament”.

Throughout the year, there were also several occasions when Chega’s parliamentary bench came into conflict with Augusto Santos Silva, Speaker of the Parliament. A situation that, according to António Costa Pinto, is “normal”. “It is nothing new for a radical far-right party to come into conflict not only with the President of the Assembly, but even with the institutions of power. In fact, it is normal for that to be the case, as the President of the Assembly was elected with left majority,” he says. The same reading has Paula do Espírito Santo, who says “there were no surprises” on the part of the party. of discussion, as we know, ultimately attracts a more popular electorate,” he says.

“A government with an absolute majority always eventually brings some radicalizations into the discourse. It is something relatively natural,” concludes António Costa Pinto.

New leadership, same attitude

2022 was also marked by the change of leadership in the PCP after nearly two decades. As Secretary General for 18 years, Jerónimo de Sousa left the post and also left his seat in the Assembly of the Republic – where he was the last of the 1976 Constituent Deputies.

In his last speech as leader, on November 12, Jerónimo de Sousa reaffirmed the PCP’s position amidst the difficulties following the January Legislative Assembly, which had exhausted the parliamentary group by half: “The wind is strong and very strong, our face, but she will never see us go backwards, because we will always look forward, in our whole project, our ideal, our celebration”. The next day, during his first intervention, his successor, Paulo Raimundo, maintained his tone: “There are people who are salivating for the end of the PCP. So here’s some advice: sit down and wait.”

Despite the changes in leadership, the discourse of the PCP should not change, say the researchers interviewed by the DN. “The change in leadership is ultimately not a direct result of the election result, something that happened in the PSD and the CDS, so the speech will be little or nothing affected,” says António Costa Pinto. “It is still an observation phase in which the new leaders are looking for room for action, although in the case of the PCP the new leadership emerges for different reasons than PSD and CDS,” adds Paula do Espírito Santo.

And 2023?

What to expect for the next 12 months after the political year 2022? “We should not expect any major surprises, especially given a government with an absolute majority,” says Paula do Espírito Santo. Armed with one of António Costa’s keywords during the election campaign (“continuity”), the ISCSP researcher envisions a 2023, similar to the year that is now coming to an end. In addition, “there will be new leaders who will entrench themselves in the opposition and take advantage of the situation of an absolute majority to strengthen themselves, even from an internal point of view”. What is certain is that there will be another leadership change in January: João Cotrim Figueiredo will leave the Liberal Initiative, something that has been known since October.

António Costa Pinto, on the other hand, hopes that it will be “a year in which the government can have stable conditions. The last years of governance have been marked by adversity, with a pandemic and war. The last few years”.

Which word ultimately defines 2022? Resistance. “I know it’s an old-fashioned word, but it’s been a tough year, like the previous two, both for the people and the government. As long as there are all those surprises and we’re in this survival phase, it’s going to be very hard to have peace and stable conditions which can make life easier for everyone. Therefore, the word that defines 2022 is exactly this: resilience, the ability to overcome adversity,” concludes Paula do Espírito Santo.

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