HomePoliticsFrom "Amazing" to "Incomprehensible": When Political Theory Gives Way to Chaos Theory

From “Amazing” to “Incomprehensible”: When Political Theory Gives Way to Chaos Theory

António Costa called it a shorter, more agile government, but after nine months of administration, the reality has turned out that the government is mainly more problematic. With two outgoing ministers, eleven outgoing secretaries of state and two censure motions later, how do you explain such a succession of controversies and ensuing shifts in an executive with an absolute majority that has not even completed a year of administration?

Even for political scientists, the first explanation is that… there is no explanation. Incredible, incomprehensible, difficult to explain are some of the adjectives used to describe a sequence of events that seem to fit less in political theory and chaos theory. “We have reached a point where even minimal appearances are defended,” says Viriato Soromenho-Marques.

“It seems that the ministers and the prime minister are doing this part time. It prompts you to ask what other profession they have, because this is absolutely unacceptable incompetence,” he criticizes, wondering “how this amateurism is possible” in the executive: “It’s unbelievable. Not even in a script for a B-movie.”

For the professor of political philosophy, “António Costa’s speech that always insists that nothing is happening is unacceptable”, just as it is “unacceptable that the country is held hostage by the party to which he gave an absolute majority”.

And this is not an isolated or indirect problem. For Soromenho-Marques, what happened in the executive shows “the fragility of an institution fundamental to representative democracy, namely the political parties”.

“We are talking about the ruling party and the way recruitment takes place [para o executivo]. In the past, there was a kind of dual source of cadres for the government: on the one hand, people from the technical sphere, from civil society, the so-called independents, and people from the party, with political confidence. At the moment it seems that we have been reduced to figures of this second type,” emphasizes Soromenho-Marques, defending that “as a society we have to think because our democracy is in a situation of degradation”.

In its various aspects: “Parliamentary debate is not very rich, people are in their trenches… And all this has contributed to the emergence of forces that are in a potentially non-democratic or even anti-democratic field”.

“Lack of coordination” in a “refurbished government”

António Costa Pinto, coordinating researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) of the University of Lisbon, believes that “the succession of controversies that have plagued the executive is not easy to explain”, not least because of the fact that this government at its origin has “a more political component stronger” than previous executives.

That makes cases particularly “ironic” like that of former Finance Secretary Alexandra Reis calling the government after receiving half a million euros in damages from TAP (and running for president of NAV, a public company). . responsible for air traffic management), in a case overseen by two “political” ministers (Pedro Nuno Santos, who has since resigned, and Fernando Medina).

A situation that makes everything even “less understandable” – “Take the case of Fernando Medina, he is one of the most political finance ministers in Portuguese democracy, a minister who did not come from a “pocket” of independent technocrats”, as their predecessors, which could explain the less focus on issues that, if they have no other problem, are at least a clear political problem.

The same applies to the case of the Secretary of State for Agriculture, Carla Alves, who resigned 25 hours after taking office, following the news in Correio da Manhã that revealed that she had foreclosed accounts she had shared with her husband, into which funds were deposited. higher than that indicated in income. “Someone misjudged it,” emphasizes António Costa Pinto, recalling that the minister responsible for the portfolio, Maria do Céu Antunes, is a “political figure, she was mayor, secretary of state” and is a member of the Political Commission of the PS – “which makes the situation even more incomprehensible”.

For the researcher, there are two points that can help explain the difficult path of the past nine months. On the one hand was the fact that the executive formed at the beginning of last year was not “a new government, but reformed”: “When he won the absolute majority, António Costa did not make a new government, he made a government reform – it was the government of the renovation that was not done in 2021”.

And because he was an executive with strong political leanings, he demanded a greater coordination effort. “The inclusion of more political ministers required much greater coordination by the prime minister himself and his cabinet,” the political scientist argues, emphasizing that there is no other figure in government who has the weight to play this role effectively. And this is precisely the second point that António Costa Pinto mentions as an explanation for the succession of things in the government: the lack of coordination.

Another paradigmatic example: the case of the Minister of Economy, an independent “with two secretaries of state inherited from the previous government”, which resulted in the ridiculous situation of publicly contradicting the minister’s statements – and ended with a rebuild.

A “surprising inability to scrutinize”

For Paula do Espírito Santo, professor and researcher at the Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP) of the University of Lisbon, it can be said that there is an “original sin” in executive training, insofar as there is a “limitation in the choices “: “As far as we can see, there is an exhaustion of opportunities for political recruitment”.

A circumstance to which is added the “surprising inability to better scrutinize the profiles of those who go into leadership positions”, as proved once again last Thursday by the lightning-fast resignation of the Secretary of State. A case that can only be viewed with “bewilderment” and “disbelief”, after a refurbishment that was “an exceptional opportunity to turn the page”, in which the Prime Minister “could not lose face again, it had to be exemplary in choice and what happens instead is a repetition of a “little bit of persistent political selection”.

“It’s hard to explain,” says the researcher, emphasizing that this sequence of events “shows negligence, political incompetence, and on a technical level: who has to choose does not have the capacity to do the minimum, which is to judge whether person is able to exert the load”. “Either all this is happening in a hurry and carelessly, or there is an excess of optimism that allows the absolute majority to overcome everything on their own,” concludes Paula do Espírito Santo.

For the researcher it cannot be said in advance that independents are more suitable for government office than those with a party card. The question is more on the level of “ethics, transparency and this cuts through” both profiles. But that’s exactly what was missing: “People can’t really discern what public service is, what transparency of decisions is, accountability.”

“A Political Caricature”

Adelino Maltez, on the other hand, confesses to being “pessimistic” and speaks of a situation that resembles the “worst political caricature of the 19th century” – “Maybe we should study Camilo Castelo Branco better”.

“We have entered a shoddy regime and this is terrible,” says the political scientist, pointing the finger at a “political oligarchy” that lives in “concentric circles of ascension” to positions of power. “There is a new career in Portugal, which will start as an adviser, progress to deputy, become chief of staff, rise to secretary of state. It is the so-called party funnel of the dominant parties. There is a demotion in political recruitment here,” says Adelino Maltez , recalling what “happened in some countries where the people at some point wiped out all the dominant parties”.

“That’s what big democracies did, they got fed up and reduced big parties to ultra-minorities. The Portuguese electorate has never and should threaten the system, the big parties should be afraid of being defeated in elections. public opinion,” he argues, defending that “republican ethics” must be a “sustainer” of political life and that the succession of cases that have taken place “makes a new political recruitment inevitable.”

Costa’s solution, from “disputable” to “demagogic”

From this point there is a step towards criticism of António Costa for the solution put forward in the Assembly of the Republic, where he stated that he would propose to the President of the Republic to create a circuit to “more ensure transparency and trust of all at the time of appointment”.

“Will the president of the republic agree on how better recruitment can take place after the ship is launched?” asks Adelino Maltez, classifying the prime minister’s proposal as an “exercise in demagoguery.”

Paula do Espírito Santo calls it a… “creative” solution: “It puts the burden of selecting and checking new members of the government on the President of the Republic. It is debatable, even in terms of legislation and the configuration of our political regime, which is semi-presidential”.

Viriato Soromenho-Marques says the scenario presented by António Costa is “unacceptable”. “It doesn’t make any sense, it’s a form of irresponsibility and an attempt to make the president complicit.”

‘To continue, we even have early elections’

For Soromenho-Marques, what is happening with the current executive branch is “a similar situation, in the most ridiculous aspects” to what happened in 2004 with the government of Pedro Santana Lopes, who would eventually be removed by Jorge Sampaio. An outcome that does not rule out the future: “If this continues, we will have early elections. Even without knowing when, we will hold them”.

But this is a scenario that puts the country in a “dramatic situation”: “There is no alternative to this government. At the moment there is no guarantee that, in an early election scenario, we will get a solid government solution. And the President of the Republic was very clear about that”.

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Author: Susan Francisco

Source: DN

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