Officially, the government wants to avoid it at all costs. However, the use of the constitutional weapon of 49.3 is still on the table for the approval of a pension reform that provokes the ire of the unions and the Nupes. Elisabeth Borne could also take an article from the Constitution that has never been used in the history of the Fifth Republic: 47.1.
Le 49.3 – this provision of the Constitution qui permet de faire adopt a texte sans vote – to déjà été utilisé à 10 reprises depuis les desnières législatives et pourrait faire son retour à la faveur des débats sur l’allongement de l’âge de départ à retirement.
“The acceptability of the reform depends on the public nature of the debates”
However, this maneuver is far from risk-free in the event of a massive mobilization in the streets against this reform. 8 out of 10 French people are also opposed according to a poll by Elabe for BFMTV. Enough to fuel possible accusations of a “coup de force”, as La France insoumise does.
“An important reform that concerns the entire country must be able to be made by listening to the different arguments. The social acceptability of pensions will depend on the public nature of the debates,” explains Dominique Rousseau, emeritus professor of constitutional law at Paris-1.
Enough to push Elisabeth Borne to launch a seduction operation aimed at the right to avoid this gesture. It is that in the absence of an absolute majority, the presidential majority has no chance that its text will be adopted in a classic way without its support.
The “red lines” of some LR could result in a 49.3
The deputies of LR “must meet on this project”, the Prime Minister also assumed on France 2 this Tuesday night. Olivier Marleix, the head of the deputies of rue de Vaugirard, said for his part “satisfied to have been heard” on various points such as the revaluation of pensions for current retirees who have all their annuities.
However, the game is not won when several elected LRs such as Aurélien Pradié have already established “red lines”. The one who lost in the race for the presidency of the party underlines, for example, “the injustice” committed with the French who started working at 16 and can only leave at 60. In fact, they will have to contribute for 44 years to go out to the full rate, instead of the 43 years provided for in the general scheme.
Suffice it to say that the use of 49.3 cannot be dismissed by Elisabeth Borne, despite the words of Olivier Véran this Wednesday at noon assuring that “all the conditions had to be met to avoid it”.
With 47.1, senators who regain control
Second option on the table for Matignon: the use of 47.1, an unknown article of the Constitution. This provision allows the government, after “a period of 20 days after the presentation of a bill”, to seize the Senate if the National Assembly has not finished examining the text within the period.
In other words, now it would be the senators who would have control of the pension reform, instead of the deputies. Very good news for the executive since the Luxembourg Palace, with a majority on the right, has been trying to raise the retirement age for several years.
“Almost ideal for government”
Bruno Retailleau, the head of the senators of LR, did not intend on Tuesday night, after the announcements of the head of government, to argue that the “proposed pension reform resumed the one we voted on in the Senate.”
“47.1 is almost ideal for the government if it manages to present the bill quickly and allows some time to pass before the debates with the deputies,” deciphers Paul Cassia, professor of public law at Paris-1 with BFMTV.
“In the end, that only leaves you a few days in the Assembly and you can quickly skip this confrontation with the elected officials of the Palais-Bourbon”, continues judging this specialist in constitutional law.
“We must politically assume an unprecedented artifice”
If we do not know for the moment the date of the deposit of the text before the Council of State, its transmission will take place before the Council of Ministers on January 23rd. The bill will be presented to deputies on February 6.
The rest of this provision also has advantages for the executive: once approved by the Senate, the text will return to a joint joint commission, which brings together both senators and representatives, and could be adopted without incident. The bill would then return to the Palais-Bourbon, which could no longer change it. However, this article has never been used so far in the entire history of the V Republic, proof of the political sensitivity of the approach.
“The government will display its imagination to get its text adopted at all costs, hence the use of provisions that are extremely rare. Afterwards, it is necessary to assume politically to use an artifice unprecedented up to now”, stresses again the constitutionalist Dominique Rousseau.
In 2020, Édouard Philippe, then prime minister, had the points-based pension reform adopted based on 49.3, before abandoning it amid a pandemic.
Source: BFM TV
