A year after the last parliamentary elections, António Costa’s PS would win elections again, but far from an absolute majority (27.1%). It could not even lead a parliamentary majority to the left, because it disappears. According to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF, Luís Montenegro’s PSD fails to assert itself as an alternative (25.1%). The right would prevail, but at the expense of the growth of Chega (12.9%) and Iniciativa Liberal (9.5%). The BE is also recovering, but only slightly (6.6%), while the CDU seems to be stagnating (4.8%). Livre (3.4%) and PAN (3.1%) would no longer be separate alternates. And the CDS would be out of parliament.
The exercise is virtual. A poll is a photo of the moment, always with imperfections. Yet it seems to confirm many of the readings heard from commentators and political scientists, and even from the President of the Republic: first, the wear and tear of the PS, undermined by the scandals; second, the weakness of the PSD as an alternative; third, the polarization that undoes the center and rewards right-wing radicals. But let’s take it part by part.
PS wear
When we compare what happened a year ago with what is expected for this year, the first conclusion is that the Socialists have defeated their absolute majority. Whether it is because of the external situation (rise in the cost of living), or because of his self-sacrifice (a succession of scandals and resignations in government), the positive assessment of António Costa is a thing of the past. And the PS would foot the bill if the Portuguese were called to the polls (Marcelo has already made it clear that they will not): it loses 14 points compared to the last parliamentary elections.
The “leftists” could be misled into thinking that’s a good thing. The PS would once again be forced to govern on the left. The problem is that the poll also shows that the device would be insufficient. A year after the legislatures, PS, BE, CDU and Livre together would have ten percentage points less and would still be far from being able to control parliament (41.9%).
Socialist losses do not benefit the three potential partners. Analyzing the vote transfer map, the BE gains something from the debacle of the PS, but only grows two points compared to 2022. As much as Rui Tavares’ Livre, although in this case two points have a different weight (it would be the de its value in the electoral market). As far as the communists are concerned, the exchange of Jerónimo de Sousa for Paulo Raimundo had no effect: half a point more than a year ago is still a hard result to swallow.
The inability of PSD
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was once a more popular president. But his ability to analyze political life in terms that everyone understands has not been lost. Taking into account the results of this poll, it is impossible not to associate it with the considerations of the president when, faced with the avalanche of scandals, he refused to dismiss the government and force early elections. As he said, in the analyst tone that made him famous on television, “an obvious, strong and immediate alternative was not likely to emerge”. Translation: PSD is not coming.
The proof of nine is done. Luís Montenegro’s PSD not only fails to take advantage of the socialist stumbling block, but also changes pace: if there were elections today, it would lose four points compared to the legislative one. A result in line with other barometer indicators: not only does it lose the opposition leadership and the right to André Ventura, but in the evaluation of the various party leaders, Montenegro is the second most losing (after Costa), with a negative balance of 18 points.
Do you remember another sentence by Marcelo, in the same context: “Imagine that the President uses a nuclear weapon and that the Portuguese people confirm the party in the government, with an absolute majority or without an absolute majority of the Republic?” It is no longer necessary to introduce yourself. Even if, as already mentioned, this is a virtual choice.
The weight loss center
It is a phenomenon that occurs in various European and Western democracies. With political life polarized, the traditional centre-left and centre-right parties are losing their predominance in favor of more populist, radical or disruptive proposals. And in a number of cases in favor of the extreme right. That’s what this poll shows.
If you add up the results of the PS and PSD – parties that have led all governments since Portuguese democracy stabilized – the relegation is evident. In last year’s legislature, the two parties accounted for 69% of the vote (and more than two-thirds of the delegates, the majority needed to pass constitutional amendments). At the moment, according to the poll, they would only be 52%.
The major beneficiaries are two newly arrived parties. The Liberal Initiative, which would now be worth twice what it was in the parliamentary elections, largely at the expense of PSD voters (which makes it all the more surprising that João Cotrim de Figueiredo, the only party leader with a positive assessment from the Portuguese, decided give up leadership).
But above all are the gains of the right-wing radicals, which would increase by about six points compared to January 2022. André Ventura is always the first (and often the only one) to ask for the resignation of state secretaries and ministers, whether there is a reason in favor or not, and the tactic pays off.
Luís Montenegro in purgatory in the shadow of Ventura
António Costa descended from heaven to hell in nine months. And that should be good news for his main rival, Luís Montenegro. It turns out that the Social Democratic leader, in turn, fell into purgatory: he sinks in the assessment of the Portuguese (negative balance of 18 points); he is run over by André Ventura in the opposition leadership and right; and the PSD is falling in voting intentions.
When it comes to identifying who the main figure of the opposition is, Ventura leaves Montenegro behind: after a 30-point draw last October, the leader of Chega now has an 11-point lead. When a new question is added, about who stands out in the leadership of the parliamentary right, the difference is even greater: 16 points ahead of Montenegro (which is not a deputy).
There is only one indicator where Ventura is even worse than Montenegro. In the qualitative assessment, despite the fall of the Social Democrat (negative balance of 18 points), the leader of the radical right has a negative record of 26 points. Even worse, only António Costa, who was the only party leader with a positive balance for months and now has 32 minus points.
The only leader to receive a positive evaluation is the one who leaves office this weekend: João Cotrim de Figueiredo leaves the Liberal Initiative leadership with a balance of five positives. And with the party at a level no previous poll predicted. The next liberal leader will have a thorny problem. Especially if we take into account that there are three times more people who think that Cotrim’s departure will have negative effects (32%) than those who foresee positive effects (11%).
RESEARCH TECHNICAL SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events. The fieldwork took place between 10 and 14 January 2023 and collected 805 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 805 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
