Los Nupes and Agrupación Nacional presented a referendum motion on Tuesday. The objective: to achieve the organization of a referendum on the issue of pensions and suspend the discussion of the current executive bill. However, this scenario has almost no chance of success.
To be presented, a referendum motion requires the signature of one tenth of the members of the National Assembly, that is, 58 deputies. It must also respond to a bill relating to the matters defined by article 11 of the Constitution. “Economic, social or environmental policy” is one of them. There is no major obstacle, therefore, regarding the presentation of these motions on the pension reform.
Majority of both chambers
Where the shoe pinches is at the time of the vote. To be adopted, this provision must first receive a simple majority of votes in the National Assembly. However, with the current composition of the chamber, even if the extreme right and left deputies voted for the same motion, this would not constitute a majority.
To achieve this, the votes of the Republican deputies would be necessary. However, although some within this group oppose the text, the leader of these parliamentarians, Olivier Marleix, as well as the head of the party, Éric Ciotti, are in favor of a pension reform.
Above all, the adoption of this initiative in the National Assembly would not mark the end of the road. Then it would be up to the Senate to decide within 30 days. However, he is mostly on the right and has been voting for several years on an amendment to postpone the legal retirement age and speed up the implementation of the Touraine reform, measures defended by the government.
The final decision rests with the president.
Proof that the scenario is very unlikely: the President of the Republic would have the last word in any case. Indeed, if the two assemblies approve the referendum motion, it is up to the Head of State, if he wishes, to “submit to a referendum” the bill, specifies article 11.
However, the executive was very clear on the subject. This is demonstrated by the words of Olivier Véran on BFMTV on Tuesday during a debate on pensions with Mathilde Panot, leader of the deputies La France insoumise, and Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally.
“There has never been a pension reform approved in a referendum,” said the government spokesman first.
The executive in danger in the event of a referendum
Referring to the last presidential and legislative elections, he continued: “You had a chance to scratch, a chance to tie. […] Behind, that you come to tell us in the third session, ‘we are going to hold a referendum’, no, that’s not how it works”. One more proof, if necessary, that a possible referendum on pensions can no longer be hypothetical.
It would be all the more surprising on the part of the President of the Republic as the current pension reform is increasingly unpopular with the French. 66% of them said they were opposed to this text in the latest Elabe poll for BFMTV, an increase of 7 points in one week. A possible referendum would thus resemble a kamikaze operation for the government.
“The result is a foregone conclusion. As long as we ask the French to make extra efforts, there is no chance that this sacrificial reform will be adopted by referendum,” said Matthieu Croissandeau, a political columnist for BFMTV.
Especially since summarizing such a complex reform in a matter of referendum would also be very difficult for the Élysée. “A good pension reform should theoretically be done in compromise. It does not lend itself to binary issues as we see in referendums,” concludes Matthieu Croissandeau.
Source: BFM TV
