The good…
On the night of January 30, 2022, the country was surprised to realize that the PS had won the parliamentary elections with an absolute majority – a surprise for the socialists themselves, starting with their leader.
More than once, António Costa had thought aloud about the bad impression the Portuguese had of governments with an absolute majority, including the PS (which enraged both José Sócrates and Cavaco Silva).
This is how the secretary-general of the PS reacted to the unexpectedly obtained result – against all predictions of the polls – and assured that an absolute majority would not equate to the dictatorship of the majority. Costa even promised that one of his goals would be to “rehabilitate” the idea of an absolute majority among the Portuguese. From an administrative point of view, an absolute majority was the best thing that could happen to the PS. He does not necessarily have to give up the dialogue that he was forced to during the “device”, but at least he can decide autonomously in case of disagreement.
And it was in dialogue, in social dialogue, that the government achieved perhaps its greatest success in this legislature – or so it claimed as such: the signing on 9 October of the Income and Competitiveness Agreement. All partners signed – both employee and employer representatives – with the usual exception of the CGTP.
It now remains to be seen whether the agreement will be fulfilled. For example, it lists wage increases in the private sector of almost 5% per year for the next four years. The minimum wage will increase to €900 in 2026.
The bad…
One might think that the main difficulties António Costa would face would be those stemming from the war in Ukraine and its repercussions for a relentless rise in the cost of living. This should correspond to some wear and tear, namely because the government has decided not to set the salary increases in the government in line with the rise in inflation, and to do the same with pensions.
Surprisingly, however, the main governance problems stemmed only from serious internal organizational shortcomings in the government, which many commentators – and even within the PS majority – attribute to the prime minister’s apparent will to pursue a political career in the European Union by 2024. Union.
The first sign of internal lack of control came in late June, when the Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Pedro Nuno Santos – an alleged candidate for the leadership of the PS to succeed Costa, when the problem arises – decided on a new solution for the airport without apparently with the head of government the “timingof this announcement. Costa immediately withdrew the order, disavowing the minister from top to bottom – but this, somewhat unbelievably, remained in office, apologizing and talking about “communication errors”.
From then on, the confusions in the government never ceased. After a tragic summer of emergency obstetrics, the Minister of Health, Marta Temido, is leaving. Costa decides to hire an assistant secretary of state – a position that had disappeared from the structure of the current government – but he is forced to resign two months into his office when he is accused of suspected previous criminal actions. president of the running camera.
And then Alexandra Reis doesn’t last even a month as Secretary of State for Finance and Carla Alves (Agriculture) doesn’t last a day and Pedro Nuno Santos, already hurt by the story of the new airport, finally leaves the government (and the leadership of the PS), following the “Alexandra Reis case”. However, such unrest does not hide the confirmation of problems that are getting worse, such as the downgrading of the SNS and the public education system (with teachers’ protests more vigorous than ever) and even the issue of impossible house prices.
And the so-so…
Last Friday, the Ministry of Finance confirmed that the government deficit for 2022 is smaller than initially estimated.
Measured in the public accounts (cash logic, which is calculated by Finance), the budget deficit ended the year 2022 at 3590.8 million euros, 1600 million euros less than predicted in the approved state budget for 2022 António Costa announced several days ago that the deficit would not be – as initially predicted – 1.9 percent of GDP, but probably 1.4 percent.
The remaining EUR 1600 million will not be used in the form of refunds to taxpayers – for example through measures that help mitigate the effects of the crisis – but to help reduce the national debt (which is still above 120 percent of GDP).
The performance of the public accounts – as well as the private economy – has enabled the prime minister to argue that the instability that took hold in the government in the second half of this year has not had any economic repercussions.
“This reinforces the belief that we will not only grow this year as we predicted, but that we can grow more than we anticipated.”
In fact, in mid-December, Economy Minister António Costa Silva said 2022 could be a “historic year” of GDP growth, with the possibility of rising to 6.8 percent (while the state budget forecast 6.5 percent ). If so, Portugal may have the highest growth rate in the European Union. For this, he also said, there is “the contribution not only from internal consumption, especially in the first half of this year, but also the contribution from net external demand, especially from services and tourism”. And what can improve the numbers is especially the last quarter.
However, the expected growth for this year is much lower (1.3% of GDP), due to the war in Ukraine. However, the pessimistic outlook began to give way to optimistic ones, with institutions such as the IMF or ECB saying the impact may not be as severe as expected, avoiding a recession scenario globally. “This reinforces the belief that we will not only grow this year as we predicted, but that we can grow more than we envisioned,” concludes António Costa.
Source: DN
