EL CONTADOR BFMTV – Pensions: Does the Borne have the majority to approve the reform in the Assembly?

The debates on the pension reform open this Monday in the chamber of the National Assembly, with a fundamental question: Will Elisabeth Borne get her bill approved?

To find out, the political department of BFMTV contacted all MPs from the Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, LR, Liot (Freedoms, Independents, Territories and Overseas Territories) groups, as well as unregistered elected officials, asking them to his position on the reform. We have also counted those who did not respond to our requests, but who clearly took a public position, for example in the press or on social networks.

On the other hand, we have not asked the 237 parliamentarians from Nupes and RN, who publicly fight against the government project.

According to our first census, it stopped this Sunday night at 6 pm, 181 deputies say they are sure to vote for the reform, by an estimated absolute majority of 289 votes. We will update this tally as parliamentary debates progress.

Victory, then, is not acquired by the executive. If the presidential camp has 250 elected officials, the government will undoubtedly have to deal with internal defections: former minister Barbara Pompili, elected from the Renaissance group, for example, mentioned “injustices” to be repaired before voting on the text.

At this stage, 166 elected members out of a majority of a total of 250 say they are sure to vote for the text: 123 Renaissance (out of 170), 25 Modem (out of 51) and 18 Horizons (out of 29). To this would be added only a small part of the LR: 15 deputies of the 61 that make up the group are in favor of the reform at the moment.

And your deputy? We have listed in the following table all the elected members of the Assembly who have declared that they are sure to vote for the pension reform. Type your parliamentarian’s name to see if they’re on the list, or your department’s name to see if your local elected officials already support the text.

It is not certain that Elisabeth Borne will immediately know the verdict of the National Assembly. The deputies must first tackle the examination of some 20,000 amendments presented to the bill. If the debates are not finished by February 17 at midnight, the text will go to the Senate.