The suspense is still complete but its end is near. This week, the pension reform enters its final stretch. On Thursday it could, depending on the scenario, be voted on, adopted or rejected.
Everything will start the day before. 7 senators and 7 representatives will meet in Joint committee (CMP) to establish the final version of the bill, in the absence of a prior agreement between the two houses of Parliament. The result is hardly doubtful: 10 members of this body are in favor of the text of the executive.
The relative majority must gather at least 40 votes in your project
Then it instructs the National Assembly and the Senate to vote on the conclusions of this body and therefore the bill. Don’t worry about the Luxembourg Palace side. It is true that not all the elected representatives of the right-wing senatorial majority voted in favor of the text on Saturday. – 6 voted against, 18 chose to abstain – but the vast majority (120 of 145) gave the green light. In the end, more than 80 votes separated for and against.
If the CMP agrees, the Upper House will have to give its approval this Thursday at 9 am Then the ball will be sent to the National Assembly at 3 pm There, the result is much more uncertain. The presidential camp, which has only a relative majority, is in a delicate position, to say the least. With its elected representatives from Renaissance, Modem and Horizons, it has 250 seats.
Objective for him: find an absolute majority and find around forty votes, among the 61 elected Les Républicains (LR). This is where the problem lies. Despite the so-called government beacons, the elected representatives of Olivier Marleix’s group have not tuned their violins. At present, only 15 of them are sure to vote for the reform, as counted by BFMTV.
Ciotti calls for the right to unity
Another problem for the executive: his majority is not quite united. At least three Renaissance deputies, including in particular former minister Barbara Pompilithey are likely to abstain.
They are not alone. Others, like the deputy MoDem ricardo ramos it could do the same among the allies of the presidential party. To achieve the union, the Renaissance group office opted for the threat: all those who vote against the text or abstain will be excluded.
Everyone prepares their troops. eric ciotti, head of the Les Républicains party and a supporter of reform, is trying to somehow unite right-wing parliamentarians. This Sunday, in the columns of JDDhe addressed an entry to the slingers and in particular to Aurélien Pradié, declaring:
“Let’s not forget that it would be a mistake to think that the right must be on the left to exist.”
The 49.3 on everyone’s mind
Within the left, there is no problem of unity in terms of the vote. As expected, they will vote in unison against the reform. Meanwhile, she claims – as Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the establishment of a referendum, a hypothesis swept by the macronie so far.
The different elected officials of the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes) also wholeheartedly denounce a possible appeal to 49.3 by the Government. A way to weaken him ahead of time and prepare the response.
Same atmosphere on the union side. This Sunday, Laurent Berger warned in the columns of JDD: “A 49.3 seems incredible and dangerous to me.” For him it would be a “form of vice-democracy”, even more so in view of “unprecedented levels of mobilization since the 1990s” against the reform.
To put pressure on the presidential field and the parliamentarians gathered in the CMP, the centrals have chosen to organize a new day of mobilization this Wednesday.
So far, the government has ruled out resorting to 49.3. At least, he publicly refuses to dwell on this option. It is true that it is a “constitutional tool”, but “it is not a tool that we are willing to take out either”, he wanted to reassure olivier veran this Monday at LCI.
At the same time, the government spokesman was firm:
“We don’t want to give up, we won’t give up on our pension reform.”
Dilemma for the executive
In other words, by failing to convince the undecided, the executive could decide at the last minute to remove the blade item. For now, he pretends that option isn’t on the bulletin board. Although it means exaggerating confidence, Olivier Véran indicated that “it was not planned to foresee a 49.3 in the Council of Ministers” this Wednesday, as required by the procedure of this article.
The government spokesman prefers to look to another horizon. The one of the mixed commission. “If you have 10 parliamentarians out of 14 who say ‘we have found a consensus’, that means, in the end, that you have representatives of both chambers, of the majority and of the opposition, who tell you that we have reached an agreement”, he insisted, still in LCI This step could finish convincing the still hesitant LR deputies, the executive hopes.
The presidential field is procrastinating. He walks on a wire, as the topic is similar to a dilemma for him. Can you run the risk of seeing a text presented by Emmanuel Macron as “the mother of reforms” rejected? On the contrary, can you afford a 49.3 and avoid setting the country on fire, or even passing a vote of no confidence?
Source: BFM TV
