A completely different composition of the chamber for the Palais-Bourbon. Los Nupes and Agrupación Nacional would obtain the largest number of seats, ahead of the Ensemble alliance (Renacimiento, Horizontes and Módem) in the event of dissolution and early legislative elections, according to a survey by “L’Opinion en direct” carried out by the Elabe Institute for BFMTV.
Important point: the intention to vote was measured based on the real offer of 2022 of the candidates and political parties present at the level of the electoral districts of metropolitan France.
The Nupes ahead in the first lap, followed by the RN
In detail, the candidates supported by Nupes (France Unsubmissive, Europa Écologie-Les Verts, Socialist Party, Communist Party) are credited with 25.5% of the voting intentions expressed at the national level in the first round. Those supported by the National Association would obtain 24.5% of the votes, a clear increase compared to 2022 (18.68%).
On the contrary, the Juntos candidates (supported by Renaissance, ex-La République en Marche, MoDem, Horizons and Agir) are accredited at the national level with 21.5% of the expressed voting intentions, that is, a sharp drop compared to 2022 (25.75%). ) in particular due to a lower mobilization of their voters. The candidates supported by LR/UDI would be at 11.5%, that is, relatively at the same level as in 2022 (11.29%), while the other political forces are accredited at the national level with less than 5% of the expressed voting intentions.
The majority would lose almost half of their deputies
In the second round of these hypothetical early legislative elections, the National Group would experience the strongest advance, since it would obtain between 150 and 175 seats (between +61 and +86 compared to 2022). The Nupes would obtain between 150 and 180 seats (between +19 and +49 compared to 2022).
Together and Divers center would recover between 130 and 155 seats (between -119 and -94 compared to 2022) while the Republicans, UDI and Divers right would have between 60 and 75 seats (between -14 and +1 compared to 2022).
Sample of 1,808 people representing residents of mainland France aged 18 or over, of whom 1,699 are registered on the electoral lists. Internet interview from April 3 to 5, 2023.
The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and category of urban area. Margin of error between 1.3 and 3.1 percentage points.
Source: BFM TV
