Four years separate us from the next presidential elections. But what could happen if it happened tomorrow? According to an Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio published on Wednesday, such a scenario would benefit Marine Le Pen above all, who would considerably improve her 2022 score.
The leader of the National Group would collect 31% of the votes if the first round took place next Sunday, in the case of a single left-wing candidacy around Jean-Luc Mélenchon (22%) and facing Édouard Philippe for the presidential majority (28%). That is an increase of eight points compared to the score obtained last year, while Emmanuel Macron obtained 28% of the vote and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 22%. The hypothesis of an Emmanuel Macron candidacy has not been tested in this survey, since the president cannot claim a third consecutive term.
The mayor would do better than Darmanin or Bayrou
If the left were not united, Marine Le Pen would come first (29%) ahead of Édouard Philippe (26%), but reach 36% of voting intentions in the event of François Bayrou’s candidacy for the presidential majority.( 9 %). Gérald Darmanin would do a little better (11%), but Marine Le Pen would then attract 35% of the vote. Bruno Le Maire would rise to 18% compared to 32% for the National Rally candidate.
“His image has completely changed and so has the structure of his vote. It is no longer the FN vote of yesteryear, now it is a general vote,” he explained to the figaro the boss of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi.
No favorable scenario for the left and the Republicans
If the left left in dispersed ranks, the leader of the Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon would collect 20% against all the candidates in the presidential majority, except Édouard Philippe: his score would then drop to 17%. The communist Fabien Roussel would collect between 5 and 6.6% of the votes depending on the configurations.
The Republicans behind Laurent Wauquiez would get between 4%, in the event of Edouard Philippe’s candidacy, and 10%, if François Bayrou were to run. Éric Zemmour would oscillate for his part between 6 and 7%, a score similar to that obtained in 2022 (7%).
Marine Le Pen on her way
Another study published on Wednesday reveals that the majority of respondents consider that Marine Le Pen is “close to the concerns of the French” (58%, +2 points in one year), “adhered to democratic values” (57%, +4 points), “competent” (52%, +6 points) and “able to reform the country” (51%, +8 points). 47% of those surveyed also consider that Marine Le Pen “has the stature of a President of the Republic” (+5 points).
These are not the only signs of progress for Marine Le Pen. According to a new “L’Opinion en direct” poll conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV on the French and the political climate, Marine Le Pen would be ahead of Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the 2022 presidential election if it were repeated. today today she would win the President of the Republic with 55% of the votes against 45%.
Surveys carried out online, the one on voting intention on March 30 and 31 with a sample of 1,105 people, the one on the image of Ms. Le Pen on March 28 and 29 with a sample of 1,002 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method. Margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
Source: BFM TV
