It is a threat brandished several times by Emmanuel Macron since the start of his second five-year term: the dissolution of the National Assembly. A power granted to him by the Constitution and to which some of his predecessors (Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac) have resorted.
Dans l’hypothèse de l’adoption d’une motion de censure sur la réforme des retraites, “je dissous tout de suite”, disait le président de la République à l’automne 2022, avant même que le texte soit présenté par le gouvernement in january. Then, the Head of State raised this possibility again on March 15, on the eve of a possible vote of the deputies in the second reading of this bill.
An option that would never have benefited the executive
Each time, Emmanuel Macron targeted the Les Républicains (LR) party, which, due to a lack of unity among its troops, was never able to guarantee its support for the executive on reform.
Objective: to put direct pressure on right-wing elected officials who might worry about their future in the event of new legislative elections and, in the second case, to convince those who are still reluctant to support the text. Omitted. Faced with the fog, the government did not take risks and chose to use 49.3, instead of submitting its project to the vote of the deputies.
Basically, the scenario of a dissolution never seemed credible, since the power could lose feathers after a reform whose unpopularity was quickly noticed. Once 49.3 was drawn, Emmanuel Macron also ruled out this hypothesis, as well as a possible reshuffle of the Government or the organization of a referendum.
One hundred seats lost in case of legislative elections
And recently published polls show that the presidential field would be exposed to great risk in the event of a dissolution. According to the one prepared by Elabe for BFMTV, the National Rally would be the great winner of such a hypothesis. In the event of new legislative elections, the flame party would thus win between 150 and 175 seats, much more than the number of deputies (89) it currently has.
On the contrary, it would be a true berezina for the majority. Already relative (250 deputies), it would see its number decrease considerably (130 to 155 seats). The Nupes, which today has 149 elected members, would stabilize or strengthen (150 to 180 deputies), according to projections.
For Emmanuel Macron “who has worked for 6 years to implode the political landscape and establish himself as the central bloc”, the gamble “is only half successful”, according to Matthieu Croissandeau, a political columnist for BFMTV.
“Certainly, the country has imploded, now with three blocs, but your bloc is a minority.”
After “a great crisis”, the electoral dynamics “hard”
The proof, if necessary: Marine Le Pen would be well ahead of him (55%) in the second round, if the 2022 presidential elections were held today. During this, the president had quite easily surpassed the head of the RN deputies with 58.55% of the votes, compared to 41.45% of his opponent.
It is true that this survey is just a snapshot and nothing says today that the ultra-right will enter the Elysee in 2027. However, “when a major crisis shakes the country and the electoral dynamics observed on this occasion, they persist, even increase, and they are reflected at the polls during the next elections”, stresses the Jean Jaurès Foundation, taking as an example the 2019 European elections, preceded by the yellow vests movement.
Source: BFM TV
