Luís Montenegro was elected PSD leader exactly 317 days ago (May 28, 2022). And on the following July 3rd, 281 days ago, the congress that established the new leadership ended, electing the remaining national governing bodies. Montenegro has thus been at the head of the party for almost a year and what the polls published since then reveal is something that worries him, as well as the party’s strategists: the PSD is rising slowly, but in fact without doing so at cost of the PS. Or, put in another way: in general, every time the PSD rises, the PS also rises; and when the PSD goes down, the PS goes down. The Social Democrats therefore do not seem to be doing much to win over the PS voters. Chega is rising steadily, however, and in the latest published study (ICS-ISCTE, for Expresso and SIC), Ventura’s party was already at 13 percent, almost double the 7.2 percent achieved in the last legislature (January 2022) . The path of Montenegro is therefore not easy. And there are several reasons.
Ventura’s Shadow…
Like its predecessor, Rui Rio, Luís Montenegro insists on not demarcating PSD from Chega. In the case of the murder of two women in Lisbon’s Ismaili center by an Afghan refugee, Montenegro and Ventura were the only two leaders of parties with parliamentary seats fueling the terrorist bogeyman – a scenario the PJ categorically rejected next time . day. Montenegro has even been warned by Marcelo that “the copy always loses to the original”. Apparently, the PSD leader does not believe that what happened in the last few parliamentary elections can be repeated: the PS concentrated the votes of the left in itself, winning an absolute majority and fanning the bogeyman of Chega’s possible arrival in power the ride of the PSD.
…and the island branch
In Madeira, the PSD rules as well as in the Azores, and in both regions one of the themes is the party’s relationship with Chega. In the Azores, the existing agreement went awry: one of Chega’s two regional deputies left the party; and the other broke the agreement with the PSD. The question is whether the Regional Government will come to an end (October 2024). It’s about Chega’s evaluation as a responsible party (or not) to integrate the government sphere – and how this benefits (or harms) the PSD.
Footsteps walking around…
It is notorious that Pedro Passos Coelho decided to “walk around” a few months ago. He even appeared arm in arm with Montenegro at the last Festa do Pontal. The two clashed, however, when Passos defended (and contradicted Montenegro) that the PSD should fight for the euthanasia law to be abolished, should it ever come into force (an argument much more from a party leader than from someone who wants to have a presidential profile). This is the riddle of Passos: what do you want to do? In the PSD he would be accepted without blinking an eye if he decided to go ahead with a candidacy for Belém (which would easily polarize the very right around him). But what many suspect is that Passos intends to return as leader of the PSD and regain the post of Prime Minister after all, avenging the outcry of 2015 (when Costa, after losing the election, stole his seat, leaning on the “device”). In this context, the result of the next European Championship (June 2024) could be decisive. Montenegro has already hinted that it will leave the PSD leadership if it loses this election: “I will never be where people don’t want me to be”I am not one of those who lose and still want to rule by force, that kind of political attitude is not for me.”
…and Marcelo’s strength
Another problem of the president of the PSD is the president of the republic. For example, in the Housing dossier, Marcelo was portrayed as the leader of the opposition, polarizing in himself all the challenges to the government’s legislative package. What’s more, Marcelo both said that the PS majority was born “tired” and believed that the PSD has not yet asserted itself as an alternative.
Absence in Parliament
Last problem – and not solvable. Whenever there is a debate in the AR with the Prime Minister, the main role on the right is always due to Chega and/or IL, due to Montenegro’s absence. It remains to be seen whether this will have an electoral effect. In any case, what all these “shadows” show is that to achieve the same success, Montenegro has to run much more than its opponents.
Source: DN
