The prime minister seems to be halting the free fall in popularity that has plagued him since April last year. Unlike most of his ministers, especially João Galamba. And the President of the Republic. António Costa nevertheless remains at a historically low level (negative balance of 27 points), according to the most recent Aximage barometer for DN, JN and TSF. On the contrary, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, despite not yet finding an antidote to fatigue, remains the most popular politician, with a positive balance of seven points.
While the Prime Minister’s Portuguese verdict remains quite negative, the simple fact that he managed to stop the bleeding is relevant. Especially if we take into account that last April it scored a positive balance of 26 points (the difference between positive and negative evaluations) and that it has been sinking since then and until the end of January of this year, reaching the worst result ever (30 minus points). In this month’s barometer it even recovers slightly (minus 27 points).
Punishment of the elderly
Among the possible explanations why António Costa apparently catches his breath are the announcements of several popular measures: the subsidy of 90 euros per quarter to the most vulnerable families, the additional 1% increase of the civil service, the IVA Zero, support for rent payments and interest subsidies for home loan holders. It is likely that the scandals at TAP will continue to wreak havoc, but that bill will be paid by Fernando Medina and especially by João Galamba (who is now the government minister with the worst result in the poll).
A relevant fact in this barometer is that the survey collection was carried out before António Costa announced the new update of pensions (which will only reach pensioners’ pockets in July), reversing the “cut” announced in September 2022. evaluation that Portuguese people aged 65 and over have made of the Prime Minister: from the main pillar of its popularity, this age group has evolved into an increasingly fierce evaluation, reaching its maximum in this barometer (negative balance of 33 points).
women save Marcelo
Like the Prime Minister, it was also from April last year that the President of the Republic embarked on a downward path. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa does not rule, but dissatisfaction with the economic, social and political situation is also taking its toll on the Belém tenant, who, unlike Costa, still cannot catch his breath. The 46 positive points he got on the barometer a year ago narrowed to the seven he now gets in the assessment of the Portuguese.
There is one more fact that darkens the presidential horizon: if it depended only on men, Marcelo would already be in negative territory (three points). Women are usually generous in their evaluations, and this time it was they (with a positive 16 points) who kept him from falling into the abyss. If the analysis angle is age, it was the elderly (the same ones punishing Costa like never before) who contributed most to keep the president afloat (25 point positive balance, as opposed to the younger, is true on negative ground) .
Three months were enough to make Galamba the “worst” preacher
From illustrious unknown, the black beast of government. According to the Portuguese, it was João Galamba’s route between January and April. On the other side is Mariana Vieira da Silva, the only minister with a positive image, according to the Aximage barometer for DN, JN and TSF.
The Minister of Infrastructure made his debut in the barometers last January, when he was still in office for a few weeks. There was a great lack of knowledge, such that 57% of the respondents resorted to a neutral assessment or refused to give an opinion. Three months later it appears that the Portuguese did not like what they saw and/or heard (with TAP as background) and that they applied a shock treatment: they have a negative balance of 42 points. It does not even escape the scrutiny of socialist voters.
Galamba is in a worse position than Fernando Medina, which seemed like an impossible “task”. The finance minister was already at a low level, but this month things got even worse (negative balance of 37 points), on a downward path since April last year. However, and unlike the “rookie” of Infrastructure, Medina retains the approval of the socialists (positive balance of 21 points).
Of the five ministers rated by the barometer, Mariana Vieira da Silva is the only one standing above the waterline. Like António Costa, the Minister of the Presidency recovers some points from January, but there is an essential difference: unlike the Prime Minister, she is on positive ground (three points). And that is the case in almost all segments: region, gender, class and age (with the exception of the 50/64-year-olds). With supporters, the story is different: positive balance, only in the PS (and better than the “boss”).
Ventura leader of a devalued opposition
André Ventura took advantage of the main opposition figure in the “race”. Chega’s leader is elected by 40% of respondents, while Luís Montenegro, president of the PSD, remains at 23%. The explanation for this climb of Ventura (which already led in January) seems to be that there are now fewer people without an opinion. The leader of the radical right gained six points in April, equaling the drop of those with no opinion. Despite remaining in the same spot, there are worrying variations for Montenegro: it is no longer the most “voted” among PSD voters (who bet more on Ventura than their own leader). However, being part of the opposition is like being branded with a red-hot iron. In this series of barometers, the opposition as a whole only received a positive assessment from the Portuguese twice, in July and November 2020 (when the country was in the midst of a pandemic and party struggles were on pause). And this April survey broke two unattractive records: the highest rate of negative reviews (52%) and the most negative balance in four years (30 points).
DATA SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events.
The fieldwork took place between 10 and 14 April 2023 and collected 805 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 805 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
