He is one of the most prestigious thinkers of post-Cold War international relations, author of more than two dozen books, including “The Revenge of Geography.” He is a journalist, political analyst, traveler and writer on geopolitical and current international issues, with works translated into several languages. He was a professor at the United States Naval Academy and a consultant to the United States Department of Defense. He is a regular contributor to various publications and was twice named one of Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 Global Thinkers.” Kaplan came to Lisbon invited by the FLAD and the Clube do Autor. Interview at TSF.
In November he told me, in an interview with Estado do Sitio, that, regarding the war in Ukraine, we were at a crossroads. Is it still like this, or has the war already changed the plays and the actors in some other direction? How do you see the current moment?
I really think we are at a fork in the road, a number of things can happen. Lenine had a fantastic phrase: “Decades can go by and nothing happens, then weeks go by and decades go by.” And I think that’s where we are now. If the Ukrainians manage to make a breakthrough, if they manage to cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea or something like that, or if they make significant progress on the ground, that will significantly weaken Russia’s position and strengthen support for Ukraine in Europe and abroad. the United States. And that could lead to a set of actions that, over time, could weaken the government of Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, if the Ukrainians do not succeed in the coming weeks and months, this could lead to a weakening of support for Ukraine in the West.
We don’t know yet, but many things like the future of NATO, support for Ukraine, the future of Russia, will all be influenced by what happens on the battlefield over the next few weeks. When big wars happen, they determine history, and now we are at that stage, where a big war, the biggest war in Europe since the Battle of Berlin in 1945, will determine many things in the future. And I don’t know which way it’s going to go. I can’t make a prediction on this. But I know we’re at a fork in the road.
If Ukraine’s progress on the ground becomes apparent and visible, do you foresee any Russian attempts to stop this? Because of the explosion of dams? For example, if that was the case, we don’t know…
We don’t know yet. Yes. It’s interesting. It’s not just about nuclear weapons. It’s not just dams that explode. They are chemical weapons. They are biological weapons. It’s sabotage, cyber attacks that could be in the West, targeting the West or Ukraine, we don’t know. As I said, we are now in this position, where if the Russian position is significantly weakened, Putin’s political survival is at stake. And if his political survival is at stake, given the system or lack of a system in Russia, his physical survival may also be at stake. And we don’t know what he’s going to do. But all these things are possible.
When I interviewed him in November about the war in Ukraine, he told me that the West was doing the best it could. Is it still like that, because we have, on the other hand, Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding more and more…
Yes, the West is now not doing its best. Theoretically, there are other weapons systems that they could send to Ukraine. But given the policies, given the imperfections of foreign policy, the West is doing a lot. The past year and a half has seen the biggest show of American power since the first Gulf War in 1991 to drive Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. Between these two wars, we have never seen anything like this, with tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons systems given to one side to weaken another great power; It’s very dramatic. So if the West isn’t doing everything it can, it’s still doing a lot.
Therefore, it is a large investment in resources. But without boots on the ground, which makes things more comfortable for the West…
Yes, exactly. You perfectly understood the point. In fact, with all the $10 billion worth of weaponry being shipped, the Biden administration is waging a war of hard limits, with no boots on the ground. Now constantly aware of the danger of the war spreading to NATO or the use of weapons of mass destruction. I think I would give the Biden administration a very high mark for its policy thus far. I think it’s the best, again I think it’s the most successful. Is the best. It’s the smartest application of American power since the first Gulf War, and I think the Biden team, Jake Sullivan in national security, William Burns in the CIA, is the best American foreign policy team since Brent Scowcroft and James Baker.
Do you think this is some kind of political investment by the Biden administration that could stall next year because of the upcoming election? Can this support for Ukraine reach a limit?
I think people are too nervous about the US elections. US elections are very unpredictable. Nobody gave Trump a chance until the first debate. Everyone thought Jeb Bush was going to be the nominee. Polls, political polls, the accuracy of political polls is declining all over the world, because people no longer pick up their cell phones and say what they feel. So no one has any idea what will happen in the Republican primary. There is an assumption that Trump is the biggest danger. I’m not sure Trump is the candidate.
Do you think these court cases could work against him?
Again, it’s not clear why no one really knows the state of public opinion, polls can no longer be trusted like they used to be. I don’t know. +
How do you comment on Trump’s reaction after the impeachment, with the statements he made in Miami and later at the political rally in New Jersey?
I think it will be more difficult for so-called Republican “waist voters,” not only in the Republican primary but also in the general election, to support Trump.
Because? Because of the amount of evidence?
Because he’s much more damaged than he was the first time around, when he ran for office in 2016. When he was elected president in 2016, he was in much better shape than he is now. Now he is very damaged.
Returning to the war in Ukraine… Increasingly, groups supported by Ukraine or, even without formal support, have been attacking Russian territory. Where can this lead us?
We are entering very dangerous waters. Because I think the Biden administration is very concerned about Ukraine attacking Russian territory. The United States cannot fully control the war, but I think they are concerned about this, that the war spills over into Russia, because that would put Putin up against the wall, and you don’t know what he can do, or what he can do, in those circumstances. I tried to do.
Considering that it will not be a surprise that there are some US agents, or advisers or military advisers, or a CIA, or people related to the State Department, or whatever, working closely with the Ukrainian authorities, which would be natural. Given the size of the military aid, do you have no vote on that? Don’t have a word to say?
I don’t know if I can answer that because I don’t know the status of the behind-the-scenes negotiations between the Ukrainians and the Americans. The Americans have a lot of influence over the Ukrainians, but still they cannot dictate everything they do.
From a Russian perspective: being attacked on your own territory makes the country more vulnerable. Do you think this could have an impact on Russian public opinion?
Yes you can. Remember, there is an idea that Russians are used to suffering. They are fatalists. But I don’t believe in all that, I believe that we live in a global world with global communications. Whether Russian public opinion is turning against Putin, we will never really know, because Russia is not a democratic country. People don’t go to dinners at night, they don’t go to demonstrations and start talking about how stupid those who govern them are; it happens in the West, it does not happen in Russia. So it’s an open question.
And the population is more or less used to decades of repression and not speaking up when, for example, they see that the army does not defend their towns or their territories from attacks from the other side of the border…
Yes, that is, for Ukraine to bring the war to Russian soil is a direct undermining of Putin’s political strength inside Russia.
Do you still believe in a military victory for Ukraine in this war with Russia, bringing Russia back to its pre-2014 positions, before the invasion of Crimea?
I think it will be very difficult for Ukraine to capture Crimea, extremely difficult. But if it threatens Crimea, it could spell the end of Putin’s rule. Because Crimea is not like eastern Ukraine. Crimea has deep associations with Russian history, with Catherine the Great, with Russian greatness, with all that. Crimea is politically and historically much more important to Russia than eastern Ukraine or any other part of Ukraine.
What can we expect from next month’s NATO Summit in Vilnius? Do you think there will be any guarantee of Ukraine’s accession?
I don’t know. I just do not know. If Ukraine can’t join NATO, they’ll come up with some kind of formula to speed up their path to membership or something.
Security guarantees?
Something like that.
This war on the eastern front of Europe captures most of the attention in foreign policy. But probably something bigger and more important awaits us, and that is the competition between the US and China. How do you think things can evolve in relation to this competition between these two great powers?
There is no easy solution for Taiwan, because Taiwan is not just a democracy, but rather represents the remnants of the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s. Even if Taiwan were an autocracy, the Beijing regime would still want to take over Taiwan. Because it is the old Kuomintang regime that the communists fought against during the Japanese occupation. So there is a lot of history here and there may not be an easy solution for Taiwan unless formulas are found that protect the US and China from going to war with each other.
A few weeks ago in Helsinki, Antony Blinken gave a speech calling on China and Brazil to join with US and Western partners to find a solution to the war in Ukraine. Blinken is in Beijing this weekend, can we expect a broader international coalition? Or even if it’s not exactly a coalition, but a diplomatic force, let’s call it that, to reach some kind of political settlement for the war in Ukraine?
The very fact that Blinken is in Beijing is a sign that the US and China want to turn down the heat. Because a Secretary of State does not simply go to a place where things are agreed beforehand. Because the last thing anyone wants is a failed summit. As for the war in Ukraine, I don’t know if China will continue to support Russia. It is possible that Blinken and his counterpart in Beijing will discuss what the situation is to end the war and find a diplomatic solution to the problem. The issue of Saudi Arabia and Israel working together will also be discussed. The Chinese have led the Saudis and Iranians to renew diplomatic relations. And the Americans are not against it at all. They want to work with them, so to speak. So I think there will be discussions not only about Taiwan, but also about Ukraine and the Middle East.
Source: TSF
