Vladimir Putin had never faced “such a great risk” as he has up to now, considers the director of the Observatory of International Relations of the Autonomous University of Lisbon. Speaking to TSFLuís Tomé admits that the rebellion could end in clashes between Russian military forces and fighters from the Wagner group.
Due to the disparity in forces, the Russian president will have the greatest advantage, but the situation could change if Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “treasonous message” reaches the population, considers the specialist in International Relations.
“For a long time we did not foresee the possibility of a split in the regime, mainly because there seemed to be no one who could stand up to Putin. And now we have that someone,” says Luís Tomé, referring to the leader of the Wagner group who has already guaranteed that its fighters “won’t give up.”
If we consider “only the comparison of forces”, Prigozhin “doesn’t have a chance at first”, but if he is “convincing with his propaganda machine, obviously we can truly fall into a situation of civil war” in Russia.
“The risk to the regime has never been greater and the possibility that the country will, in fact, enter a civil war exists,” he considers.
Yevgeny Prigozhin “is not just attacking the military leadership, he is attacking President Putin and the way Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine,” he explains. And even if it does not succeed, the regime is “shaken”.
The divisions in Russia between the military and the Wagner group are “an obvious advantage for the Ukrainians,” Luis Tomé argues, so Ukraine will most likely try to capitalize on the internal Russian conflict to intensify the military counteroffensive launched in recent days.
“Right now, the Ukrainian command is reviewing its operations, which were apparently in a kind of counteroffensive pause, because the context of doubts and tensions (…) is always to the advantage of the opponent.”
“I think that in the coming days the Ukrainian counteroffensive will intensify, taking advantage of this situation, especially if the uncertainty about the outcome of the Wagner group’s coup continues over time,” he points out.
Source: TSF
