After a “tense” and “difficult” Saturday, the mayor of Moscow declared Monday a day off to limit travel in and out of the Russian capital. This weekend the Kremlin trembled as rebel forces from the Wagner paramilitary group openly challenged power, before withdrawing to avoid “a bloodbath” with security forces.
Calm returned on Sunday night in Moscow. However, the “regime of anti-terrorist operations” remains in force. Large police patrols were deployed on the outskirts of the city.
“In the minds of the authorities, not everything is resolved yet, there is still a risk of trouble,” explained BFMTV’s special envoy to Russia, Paul Gogo.
Because one question remains: what will be the reaction of Vladimir Putin, at the head of the Kremlin, whose authority has never been so undermined since he came to power more than twenty years ago?
Yevgeny Prigojine in exile
In a speech on Saturday morning, a few hours after the start of Wagner’s rebellion, Vladimir Putin had denounced a “betrayal” against the Russian people and promised an “implacable” response against the perpetrators of the riot.
The Head of State has not spoken publicly since he spoke. On Saturday night, an “agreement” with Wagner was reached between the Russian presidency and Yevgeny Prigojine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced.
However, the current whereabouts of militia leader Wagner are unknown. His departure for Belarus was announced on Saturday by Moscow, which assured that the country’s justice would not prosecute the leader of the Wagner group and the fighters who followed him.
Wagner’s mercenaries will not be “persecuted”
A forced exile, which could set aside the Wagner militia, but omnipresent on the Ukrainian front, which could be redeployed to Africa. As for the mercenaries who did not participate in the rebellion, they will be able to join the Russian army, according to the Kremlin. A hypothesis that does not convince Marat Gabidullin, a former member of Wagner and a guest on BFMTV this Sunday.
“Most of the mercenaries will not join the regular Russian army,” he says, referring to “a certain contempt of Wagner’s men for this Russian army.”
The Kremlin assures you: despite Vladimir Putin’s statements on Saturday, the mercenaries will not be prosecuted.
“No one will go after the fighters, given their merits at the front” in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
What will become of Shoigu?
In Moscow, to regain his leadership, “Putin must find a political solution”, analyzes General Jérôme Pellistrandi, BFMTV Defense Consultant. According to him, the head of the Kremlin could “pretend to maintain a form of national unity in his first or second circle.”
Therefore, in order to “avoid a civil war”, Vladimir Putin could have conceded a victory to Evgeny Progokhine during the deal made with Wagner’s head.
In particular, getting people to quit in the next few hours or days. sergei shoigou, Minister of Defense of Russia and Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. For several months, Evgeny Prigojine thus multiplies the insults and invectives towards them and demands their resignation.
No immediate consequences for the war in Ukraine
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin should not completely lose face and probably will not review his military targets. Wagner’s aborted rebellion “will in no way affect” Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Dmitri Peskov assured late Saturday, as Kiev troops have been on the offensive for several weeks.
“The special military operation continues. Our army managed to repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive, ”he said.
On the western side, it is believed that this crisis in Moscow “reveals real cracks” at the highest level of the Russian state. This unprecedented crisis was mentioned by US President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, during a telephone conversation, kyiv and Washington announced.
French President Emmanuel Macron also considered that Wagner’s rebellion showed “the divisions” in the Russian camp and “the fragility of both its armies and its auxiliary forces.”
Source: BFM TV
