The aborted insurgency of the Wagner paramilitary group in Russia over the weekend triggered the worst internal crisis Russian President Vladimir Putin has faced since taking power, leaving several issues in suspense.
Where is Yevgeny Prigozhin?
The last time the boss of the Wagner group appeared in public was last Friday, when he left the Russian city of Rostov (southwest), where he had taken control of a military headquarters, to the applause of some locals.
The Kremlin vowed that Prigozhin had Vladimir Putin’s “word” that he could freely leave Russian territory for Belarus, an ally of Moscow, and that he would face no criminal charges.
However, a source at Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office, quoted by the three main Russian news agencies, said on Monday that “the case is not closed” and that the investigation is continuing.
Michael Nacke, a Russian military blogger, believes Prigozhin will establish his base for Wagner in Belarus and continue to direct his group’s operations in Africa.
But “Prigozhin has become an extremely vulnerable target: he can be arrested, he can be killed,” Nacke told France-Presse news agency (AFP).
What is the future of the Wagner Group?
Prigozhin launched the armed uprising a few days after Putin announced that Wagner group fighters would now have to sign contracts with the military.
“They wanted to dismantle the group,” Prigozhin accused on Saturday.
The Kremlin assured that the men who followed the leader in the uprising will not face criminal charges, in thanks for their services in Ukraine, and that some can, “if they wish”, sign contracts with the Russian military.
Michael Kofman, a US military expert, believes that the “Wagner group could be completely dismantled or absorbed” by the military.
According to independent Russian analyst Tatyana Stanovaya, “Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can get away on his own. He’s definitely convinced of that now.”
What are the consequences for the generals?
The stated goal of Prigozhin’s uprising was to replace Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.
To date, Vladimir Putin has not announced any changes in the military hierarchy.
Russian public television showed him this Monday morning, his first public appearance after the aborted uprising, inspecting Russian forces in Ukraine, footage made available by the Kremlin that gave neither the date nor the place.
Gerasimov has not appeared in public since the coup attempt.
“Under pressure [de Prigozhin]”Putin will do nothing,” pro-Kremlin Russian political analyst Sergei Markov said in a post on the Telegram social network.
For Rob Lee, of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the latest developments “give the impression” that Shoigu and Gerasimov are “weak” but also showed how “important it is for Putin to have loyal figures in charge of his military and security services.”.
Did Prigozhin act alone?
In just 24 hours, fighters of the Wagner group managed to take control of part of Rostov (southwest), a city of more than a million inhabitants, and approach Moscow, where there are different versions about the distance to the capital. between 200 and 400 kilometers.
Prigozhin, who claims to have taken army headquarters in Rostov “without firing a shot”, may have had outside help or acted in desperation as he saw the noose close around his group and believed reaching an agreement with the Kremlin the only way was to obtain security guarantees.
The comments of the first deputy head of the military secret service (GRU) sowed confusion: in a video published on Saturday, Vladimir Alekseyev urged fighters of the Wagner group to end the uprising, while he mocked Shoigu and Gerasimov, who wanted to overthrow Prigozhin.
“Take us with you,” Alekseev said, accompanying the words with a wave of his hand.
What impact will it have on the offensive in Ukraine?
The mutiny led by the Wagner group will “in no way” affect Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Moscow assured.
But the unrest in the rear, according to several analysts quoted by the AFP, could at least have an effect on the morale of Russian soldiers, at a time when they have been dealing with waves of Ukrainian attacks for weeks.
The group of mercenaries attached to Wagner was also one of the most battle-hardened Russian troops, having been at the forefront of the now famous battle of Bakhmut (Eastern Ukraine).
But on the ground, “since (the capture of) Bakhmut (in May), the army has become much less dependent on Wagner,” military analyst Michael Kofman put into perspective.
“The Wagner group was not used for defense in the south,” he stressed, one of the main areas where Kiev forces are currently trying to break through Russian defenses.
Source: DN
