The NATO summit will take place in Vilnius next Tuesday and Wednesday and will bring together the heads of state and government of the 31 countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) following Finland’s recent accession.
Here are some of the key topics on the Allies’ agenda:
Agreement to support Ukraine, but no formal invitation to join
Article 5 of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty states that an armed attack against one or more NATO members is considered an attack against all, requiring a response. This is the main reason why Ukraine’s entry into NATO, which has been invaded by the Russian Federation since February 24, 2022, is not on the table at the summit of the Allies in Vilnius.
These details have been agreed among the members, who also agree to continue and even strengthen support for Ukraine.
However, the allies will discuss how to move beyond the declaration of the 2008 Romania summit, which opened the door to Ukraine and Georgia’s eventual NATO membership and provoked strong objection from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who at the time was present at that meeting. .
French President Emmanuel Macron – who even predicted NATO’s “brain death” in 2019 – believes Ukraine should be given “stronger, tangible and very clear” security guarantees at the summit; the United Kingdom, through its Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, has shown openness to speeding up Ukraine’s accession process by ‘skipping’ the step of the Accession Action Plan (MAP in the English acronym).
Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Slovakia have also expressed their support for Ukraine’s accession.
More cautious were the statements of the President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, who warned that Kiev will not receive preferential treatment when the issue arises, as well as the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who has already expressed his reluctance to this possibility and asked for a summit aimed at strengthening the real combat capability of Ukrainians.
Despite Ukraine’s head of state, Volodymyr Zelensky, requesting a formal invitation to join the Alliance after the end of the conflict, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (who will remain in office until October 2024) has already warned that that will not happen at this summit.
Multi-annual program and new NATO-Ukraine Council
The only assurance ever uttered by the Secretary General of NATO is the intention to discuss a multi-year program to help Ukraine move closer to NATO standards and make the transition from the Soviet era in terms of equipment and military doctrine.
The creation of a new NATO-Ukraine Council was also announced, putting the country on an equal footing with the members of the organization, even though it is not part of it.
Stoltenberg expects the first meeting of this new council to take place in Vilnius, in the presence of Zelensky.
Strengthen defense and deterrence capabilities and presence in the east
Strengthening the Alliance’s deterrence and defense capabilities is one of the key themes of this summit, with a review of the Alliance’s military model and new regional plans to be implemented at the meeting.
These new regional plans will place 300,000 troops on alert and, according to NATO’s Secretary General, rely on the three Allied headquarters in Norfolk (US), Brunssum (Netherlands) and Naples (Italy), which geographically support the defense of the entire alliance.
Increasing the weight of defense spending in allies’ GDP
Strengthening Allied defense investment, which has increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will be another topic on the table at the Vilnius summit.
In 2014, NATO members committed to achieving at least the target of 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Defense by 2024.
NATO’s Secretary General has pushed the idea that allies should commit to the 2% as a minimum and not a “ceiling”, having already called on the 31 members to have “political courage” to defend defense increase spending and arms production to continue supporting Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
According to the NATO Secretary General’s annual report for 2022, only the US and six European countries (Greece, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Estonia and Latvia) reached the target of 2% of GDP in military spending that year.
According to the same document, Portugal was the 9th member state of the organization with the lowest percentage of GDP spent on defense in 2022, equal to 1.38%.
The country estimates that it will not reach the 2% target until 2030 and this year the target is to reach 1.66% – a target that has been pushed forward since planning for 2024.
However, NATO’s forecast is lower. On Friday, the Alliance estimated that Portugal will invest 1.48% of GDP in defense this year, lower than the government’s forecast, which is the largest investment since 2014.
Sweden’s accession ‘versus’ Turkey’s (and Hungary’s) ‘finca-pé’
In 2022, Finland and Sweden started from the same premise, but the goal of joining the Atlantic Alliance will be a real hurdle race for Stockholm, which is still awaiting the necessary ratification by Turkey and Hungary for membership.
On Thursday, Stoltenberg met with senior military and diplomatic officials from Sweden, Turkey and Finland and, according to the Norwegian, the countries agreed on the existence of progress in the process, but ratification will not take place before Monday, the 10th day eve of the start of the summit.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants a greater effort from Sweden, namely in the fight against Islamophobia and organizations that Ankara classifies as terrorists, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which accuses Stockholm of granting asylum to elements of this party, which is also considered a terrorist organization by NATO.
Negotiations have been going on for months and at the end of June the burning of a copy of the Koran in the Swedish capital during a protest drew strong criticism from Turkey, causing another setback.
Sweden granted some of Ankara’s requests, tightened its anti-terrorism laws and also agreed to extradite some dissidents to Turkey.
The Turkish “finca-pé” could also be used by Ankara as a bargaining chip for the country’s ambition of acquiring F-16 fighter jets from the US.
US President Joe Biden supported the request and asked Congress to finalize the authorization, but the takeover process has since stalled as members of Congress have opposed progress by Erdogan’s executive on respect for human rights.
Source: DN
