Spain is close to a change in the political cycle, the polls say. A right turn, while not guaranteed, is the most likely scenario on the eve of Sunday’s snap election. The political situation across the country is different from that of four years ago when the last vote took place, but there are still similarities. At the time, Spaniards went to the polls twice (in April and November) after Pedro Sánchez initially failed to form a government, being the most voted political force. At the time, the polls gave victory to the PSOE, but never by a majority. The electoral replay ended with the formation of a coalition government, the first of Spanish democracy.
This time the situation is reversed: the PP is the favourite, but probably will not be able to rule alone either. The scenario of a new vote looms in the minds of some. “In this election, we have three options. First, that the right-wing bloc has a majority and can form a government, with or without Vox, depending on the deputies,” begins with an explanation to DN Juan Fernández Miranda, deputy director of the ABC. “Another, a Sánchez government, but it would need the support of many parties and it is not easy to get everyone’s yes. And a third option is to be stuck, without a majority on the right and without support to form a government on the left.
Although the scenario of uncertainty remains, four years later the protagonists in this puzzle are not all the same. On the left, the vice president of the government, Yolanda Díaz, gets her own voice as leader of Sumar, the platform that brings together more than 15 progressive political forces and competes with Unidas Podemos. A movement that strives to be the third political force in the country and set its political course. In the center Ciudadanos disappeared. The party that was about to form a government with the PSOE began to lose strength until it simply decided not to participate in this vote. In the last regional elections, last May, it lost its representation in all Autonomous Communities and almost 90% of its municipal power. On the right, the People’s Party debuts as a candidate for Prime Minister – Alberto Núñez Feijóo, elected leader of the Conservatives in March 2022. A skilled and experienced politician, used to governing in Galicia with an absolute majority. But the national panorama ahead doesn’t seem so idyllic. Where are the votes of Ciudadanos going? Do the followers of Unidas Podemos agree to perform with Sumar? Will Feijóo be able to attract socialists unhappy with “Sanchismo”? There are many questions in the air that could determine the course of the country.
Polls conducted by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) show that 9% of PSOE voters in 2019 will now vote for the PP, 7.2% for Sumar and 12.2% still don’t know. Of the people who trusted Sánchez four years ago, only 64% think of doing it again in the 23J, the lowest vote fidelity of the four major parties. “The national component punishes Sánchez, who loses votes in the center,” said Carlos Cue, a political journalist from the the country. “Some are changing because of EH Bildu, others because of pardons for Catalan politicians and still others because of the consent law,” he adds. The CIS is the only institution to publish a poll in which the PSOE comes first and to rule with Sumar it would again need the support of the Independentists of Catalonia (ERC) and the Basque Country (PNV).
The role of the extreme right
One of the biggest concerns in this election is the role Vox could play in a future government. The far-right party had 52 deputies in the 2019 election, where it was the third most voted force, remaining the second largest opposition force. Now the polls are talking of a drop in votes, but he could play a bigger role if the PP needs him to govern. “Feijóo is very uncomfortable with Vox. He doesn’t like him, but the question is whether he wants to have more power, even if he has to stay with Vox,” says Fernández Miranda. For him, an agreement between the two parties poses no danger in matters such as the illegalization of independence parties that want the extreme right or the change of policy on domestic violence. “Another problem is controlling the people who are in Vox, a party full of extremist characters that are difficult to control,” he notes. He acknowledges the existence of a common space between the two sides and that “Feijóo’s ability to attract Santiago Abascal to moderation will be very important”.
For Carlos Cue, Spain, along with Portugal, were two isolated cases of European countries without representation in the far-right parliament. In Spain, they entered 2019, with 52 deputies, but he believes that their presence “is not normalized because the similarities between PP and Vox marked this campaign”. He believes that Vox’s entry into Spanish politics marked a general shift to the right. For example: “No one had asked about things like immigration”. He also underlines the fact that Vox activates many people, “it turned out to have a lot of power and the PP finally accepted three chairmen of impossible autonomous parliaments”. In a situation of PP strength “this situation would not be”. Despite everything, Cue recognizes Feijóo’s ability as a politician. “Many socialists voted for him, but he has never had to compete directly with the far right in Galicia”, where it has no clout. “Let’s see how he handles the situation now,” he emphasises. According to him, “a government with Vox will not be normal or peaceful, because this party is nothing normal or peaceful”.
Vox voters
If we take into account that the far right had no presence in the Spanish parliament until 2019, many analysts and many Spaniards wonder where Vox voters come from. In the last election, 3.6 million people trusted this party, 15% of voters. The Deputy Director of ABC distinguishes three profiles of voters from this political force. “One is a conservative voter, who historically voted for the PP, disappointed in Rajoy for not dismantling issues like the memory law or the abortion law after Zapatero. He is an angry voter,” says Juan Fernández Miranda. Then there is the radical and extremist voter, “who are smaller in numbers, but greater in radicality, in extra-parliamentary positions that Vox has approached,” he adds. And third, the far-right leaders are turning to the workers, more along the lines of Marine Le Pen, a voter profile that matches the hardest language, against illegal immigration,” he emphasizes.
In 2019, Vox was the most voted party by young men between the ages of 18 and 24. “It has a lot of resonance in the youth, a sector for which the identity factor is important, to be part of a collective,” explains DN Miguel González, responsible for defense information at the newspaper El País and author of the book Vox SA, in which he tells the origins and evolution of this Spanish political force. “Among his electorate are peasants, small businessmen, police, army, workers and women”. He also remembers that the Catholic factor does not carry much weight in this party.
The presence of Vox in the autonomous governments
Castilla y León was the first laboratory for Vox experiments. President Alfonso Fernández Mañueco (PP) and Vice President Juan García-Gallardo (Vox) accepted a “political marriage”, aware of their differences. In the Autonomous Government, they point out that in the first year of the coalition, they managed to implement measures, work normally to implement the program and modernize the region. The 2023 regional budget is based on the idea of ”less taxes, more family, more public services” and was the result of the unity and work of the two sides. But there were also moments of tension between the two sides, such as at the beginning of the year when Vox presented a pro-life protocol and threatened to leave the autonomous government if the PP did not comply. In the end, the case did not progress.
After the 28 million elections, Vox is present in the governments of Extremadura, the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands. “Vox does not have a serious national structure, nor strong candidates in all regions,” laments Carlos Cue, eventually losing control of yet another party that “believes that sovereignty rests with the Spanish nation and not with the Spanish people. It is a fascist conception,” warns Miguel González.
The importance of being the third force
“The battle for third place will be very important,” warns Juan Fernández Miranda. In Spain there are 52 constituencies, some large and some small. In medium-sized countries, the third political force gets a deputy, but the fourth probably won’t. And that will make a big difference,” the journalist looks back ABC. Both Yolanda Díaz with Sumar and Santiago Abascal with Vox aim to occupy that third place, not least because it could be decisive for the formation of a government, as happened in 2019. The latest polls show a very similar situation for these very opposing parties – they could get between 30 and 39 deputies each.
Is an absolute majority possible?
During the election campaign, Alberto Núñez Feijóo tried to distance himself from Vox, who he said “is not a good partner” and spoke of a difficult, but never impossible, absolute majority. “Feijóo looks at what happened in Andalusia. He looks for this example and wants the Vox voter to switch to the PP, he asks for the useful vote. But I think this will not be possible at the national level, where there is Catalonia and the PP is little represented in this region,” explains Fernández Miranda. For him, a good scenario for the Conservative party would be to have at least 150 deputies, which “could prevent Vox from entering the government”. If there is a coalition government, “it would be very stressful, as happened with PSOE and Podemos”. He also talks about the contacts between the PP and the Basque conservatives of the PNV, a party that can help Feijóo, but “as long as Vox is not in government”. Carlos Cue takes a different view and sees it as very difficult for the far right to stay out of power if he wins this political bloc – “Feijóo is very capable, he thinks he will be able to govern with 150 deputies without Vox, but it seems difficult to me,” he says.
Source: DN
