Sunday’s elections in Spain have resulted in a parliament split between the left and the right and a negotiation process is now starting in which the independence parties are once again key players, despite losing votes and deputies.

Negotiations could lead to the formation of a new government or, if they fail, to repeat elections, expected at the end of this year or early 2024, according to the deadlines and calendars provided by Spanish law.

These are some of the key points of parliament emerging from Sunday’s legislation and the possible scenarios for the formation of a government in Spain:

divided parliament

The People’s Party (PP, right) won the elections, but without an absolute majority with the far-right VOX, with which it governs in coalition in three autonomous regions.

The absolute majority is 176 deputies and PP and VOX together elected 169 deputies. They can eventually gain the support of two more deputies, elected by regionalist formations from Navarre and the Canary Islands that are normally right-wing.

The second most voted party was the Socialist Party (PSOE) of the current Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez. PSOE and the far-left platform Somar, which supposedly wanted to rule in coalition, have 153 seats in parliament, but have more allies in the assembly than the right and will be able to guarantee the support of 172 deputies, one more than PP and VOX.

The key role of the Catalan independence movement

Among the potential allies in the parliament of the left bloc formed by PSOE and Somar are, as happened during the last legislature, Basque, Catalan and Galician nationalist parties, as well as the separatists Esquerda Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and EH Bildu (from the Basque Country).

From all accounts, right and left, the seven deputies of the also independentist Together for Catalonia (JxCat), led by former regional government president Carles Puigdemont, who lives in Belgium are on the run from Spanish justice following the Catalan independence attempt in 2017.

JxCat deputies will thus be able to hold the key to the new government in Spain, with the demands of the party, which calls for a referendum to be held in Catalonia on the region’s independence, difficult for national parties, both right and left, to answer.

In a publication on the social network Twitter on Sunday, Puigdemont reiterated his opposition to socialist policies for Catalonia, but ended the text with a message that seems more critical of the right: “We must continue to defend Catalonia against those who want to liquidate our language, our culture, our nation.”

JxCat leader Miriam Bogueras, again elected as a deputy, said on Sunday that the party will not make Pedro Sánchez viable as prime minister “for nothing” and that the priority is “Catalonia” and not “the administration of the state”.

Despite this starring role of the independence and nationalist parties, only one of them achieved better results than in the previous elections, in 2019, the Basque EH Bildu, which went from five to six deputies.

Steps to form a government

August 17 is the only concrete date foreseen in Spanish law regarding the new legislature resulting from Sunday’s elections.

That day, the Cortes (Congress of Deputies and Senate, the two chambers of the Spanish Parliament) is formed with all elected officials and the new legislature formally begins.

Then, but with no set deadlines, the King of Spain will conduct a round of contacts with parliamentary groups to designate a prime ministerial candidate to be voted on in parliament.

The King usually establishes contacts with the parties about two weeks after the arrival of the new deputies.

The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, said on Sunday that as chairman of the party with the most votes, he will try to form a government immediately, while Pedro Sánchez has so far not given any indication of what he will do regarding the formation of a new executive.

Felipe VI’s decision will depend on what he hears from the parties, in addition to the outcome of the elections.

The name proposed by the king is voted on in plenary, but he will not become prime minister until he receives an absolute majority. If he is not immediately ‘failed’, a second round could be held 48 hours later and a simple majority would suffice to be sworn in as prime minister.

However, if this vote fails, a two-month countdown to a new candidate for the head of government and an inauguration will begin.

When these two months are over, the Cortes is dissolved and the elections are repeated 47 days later.

The Spanish media today say that if this scenario is confirmed, Spain would, predictably, repeat the elections at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

Repeated elections in 2016 and 2019

Spain has held national parliamentary elections twice, in 2016 and 2019, as no prime minister candidate has been approved by parliament.

The then PP leader and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy won the 2015 elections without an absolute majority and was nominated by the king to be sworn in as head of government, but refused even to appear for the vote in parliament because he lacked the necessary support.

The elections were repeated in 2016, after a failed investiture attempt by socialist Pedro Sánchez, then in the opposition.

In 2019, it was already Prime Minister Sánchez who failed the first investiture and the elections were repeated in November of that year, leading to the first governing coalition in Spain, of the PSOE with the Unidas Podemos platform (far left).