How do you read the election results?
These outcomes create uncertainty, insecurity and uncontrollability. They will be very negative for citizens’ interests in their daily lives. If Spain had high-quality politicians, the two majority parties would have to think about reaching an agreement, as conservatives and social democrats did in Germany. But Spain is not Germany, neither because of its political culture nor because of the rank of its leaders.
What are the options for Spain to have a government?
One scenario is that it happens as always in Spain: the party with the most votes rules. Like with Aznar, Zapatero, Rajoy and Felipe González. But I don’t see Pedro Sánchez in that category. Another scenario is that Sánchez will receive support from all parties except the PP, Vox and UPN. [União do Povo Navarro]. But if it did happen, there would be several problems. I’d be negotiating with a fugitive from justice right now [o ex-presidente do Governo catalão Carles] Puigdemont and also with Bildu’s pro-etarras. Also Junts and ERC within a year [Esquerda Republicana da Catalunha] will compete for the Generalitat and PNV [Partido Nacionalista Basco] and Bildu will fight for power in the Basque Country.
Reforming a Frankenstein government would result in an unstable government, limited in time due to internal wars and because it would be constitutionally difficult for Sánchez to accept the independents’ demands, such as the referendum. Also within the Sumar movement, when it is time for the division of positions, sparks will fly. I imagine that Yolanda Díaz will put to work her great ability to do what is in her best interest and disregard those who were with her. Internally, Sánchez would again have a government with communists, while internationally there would be a clear rejection. The communists within Sumar are against NATO and question Spain’s support for Ukraine. This Frankenstein administration is complicated, although it is most likely without respecting the most voted list.
So what would be the best solution?
Repeat the elections in November. I believe that elections not taking place on July 23 could clarify a situation of uncertainty and ungovernability that will be very negative for Spain’s interests abroad and, above all, for attracting much-needed investment to our economy.
There is an issue that needs to be considered, taking into account the expectations raised in the polls. Politics has its time, it needs maturation. In the first attempt, no political leader was president of the government. Feijóo got 47 extra deputies in a year and a half, it was very good, but you need time to gain the trust of the citizens. The absolute majority of Juanma Moreno in Andalusia and Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid still does not translate into votes for Feijóo. In Madrid, there are people who vote for Ayuso and then vote for Vox in the legislature and that is a problem for the PP.
Did Feijóo have a bad campaign?
In election campaigns you have to play until the last second. After the debate with Sánchez, there was an excess of optimism, as if everything was already done. And Sánchez changed, he went back to election rallies to get those deputies who can define the government.
Was it Feijóo’s mistake not to participate in the four-way debate?
Reality has shown that RTVE reaches many homes, especially older people, and Feijóo has missed the opportunity to reach them, to reaffirm or consolidate itself. At first I thought it might be a hit, but the truth is voters want candidates to sweat their shirts. Empty seats are paid.
PSOE took first place in Catalonia. Was this region decisive for the end result?
It is one of the most relevant communities. Catalans vote according to the type of election (municipal, autonomous and legislative). The independence parties are worn out and the Catalans are calling for efficiency in management and a change. What people want is for problems to be solved. The loss of almost half of the ERC deputies is an example. And the PP also rose sharply in this region. It seems to me an overrepresentation and overvaluation of the nationalist voices compared to the rest of the country. An amendment to the electoral law is necessary, because we cannot depend on independence parties that want to break Spain. Democracy must be defended. The electoral law must be updated so that Basque and Catalan nationalists do not dictate the governance of all Spaniards, important as these regions are.
What is the international reading of Vox’s fall?
It’s a message. The solution of problems is more in the center than in radicality. The problem mainly lies in the way the messages are launched. There are reforms which, if presented in a different way, could be better received. Sometimes they even have part of the reason, but they provoke rejection. The mobilization of the left-wing electorate, which did not exist in the municipalities, is aimed at avoiding the government of the PP and Vox. There are those who vote in the legislature to avoid joining. Far-right populism has some red lines that citizens have noticed and don’t want to cross. The far-left is more likely to assume that its past is linked to Stalinism, communism, etc… but the far-right’s Nazi past provokes rejection, fear and mobilization.
Source: DN
