Last week, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) voted on an issue close to the left’s heart: the decriminalization of light drug possession, to relieve the strain on the country’s overcrowded prisons, full of “criminals” who occasionally joint smoking. when. Everything went according to the progressive script, with five votes to zero, until one of the judges, a conservative, reduced the result to 5-1. Nothing special, after all, two judges have been appointed to the court by former president Jair Bolsonaro. But no: the dissenter was the judge Lula da Silva chose for the STF a month ago. Possession of soft drugs will be approved, but Cristiano Zanin’s vote has once and for all shaken relations between the President of the Republic and his left.
On Wednesday the 30th, a resolution from Lula’s own PT left a message to Zanin between the lines: It classified the STF’s recent decisions in favor of the LGBTQIA+ population and indigenous peoples as “civilizing progress”, in addition to the aforementioned issue. of possession of drugs, and in all cases Lula’s bet was against. The President of the Republic is therefore being pressured on the left to elect an unquestionable liberal to the STF in October, when current Justice Rosa Weber retires — or rather, an unquestionable liberal.
However, the sounds in the relationship between the Planalto and the more progressive sectors of the PT and parties, such as PSOL, similar to the Portuguese Bloco de Esquerda, Rede Sustentabilidade, with an environmentalist slant, and others do not end in Zanin and in the STF.
The Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST), a Marxist-inspired group with about 1.5 million members advocating for agrarian reform, raided a state property in Petrolina, Pernambuco, on July 31, arguing that Lula had breached an agreement that with the movement was closed. in April. Paulo Teixeira, Minister of Agricultural Development, managed to evict the house the same day the rumor in the relationship grew as the government called the MST “anxious” and the movement accused the government of “lack of commitment”. João Pedro Stédile, leader of the MST, is one of Lula’s closest allies.
On the other hand, a public environmental institute, with the support of the Ministry of Environment, headed by Marina Silva, has vetoed an oil extraction project on the coast of Amapá due to “technical inconsistencies”. But the Ministry of Mines and Energy asked for the veto to be reconsidered and Lula has already said that “Amapá can keep on dreaming”, indicating that when in doubt he opts for oil.
“The current Lula administration is more conservative than that of 20 years ago, because the balance of forces in Congress and in society has changed,” says André Kaysel.
In fact, the president will at any time implement a government reshuffle that intends to welcome two cadres as new ministers, both men, from parties, the Republicans and the PP, from Bolsonaro’s base. The purpose of the reshuffle is to increase the government’s power in Congress; the result is an inevitable shift to the right in the executive branch.
Is Lula under threat as he sees alliances crumbling on the left? André Kaysel, professor of political science at the University of Campinas, thinks not. “Twenty years ago, part of the left broke with the Lula government over pension reform and the PSOL was born, but today the scenario is different. I believe in shouting on social networks, but not in tearing. Lula has just closed support for Guilherme Boulos, of PSOL, in the race for mayor of São Paulo. Will PSOL give up? Unlikely”.
“The current Lula administration is more conservative than that of 20 years ago because the balance of forces in Congress and society has changed.: the extreme right was then a marginal phenomenon, now it is a mass phenomenon; the PT had 92 deputies at the time, now the federation consisting of PT, PC do B and PV has 80, Lula has to balance itself”, he continues.
Mayra Goulart, professor of political science at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, explains that this is “the nature of presidentialism in Brazil: the president, the highest executive, rarely has a majority in the legislature, it is always very fragmented”. “However, due to the short tradition of democracy, most parties are not ideological; it is “bus parties” instead, who take everything, and it is these parties that are drawn to ministerial reforms and subsidy concessions – this even includes the parties that were in Bolsonaro’s circle, such as the Republicans and the PP”.
In short, according to Mayra, “in order to pass its projects in the legislature, the government has to wink at these parties, center right and right, because those on the left, because they already have an ideological convergence, need not be encouraged to join to do”.
“The reduction in polarization has increased the popularity of the Lula government, as the economic improvement is read into segments such as the middle class or the evangelicals,” Mayra Goulart believes.
On the other hand, the causes of the left do not translate into votes. “MST, sexual diversity, drug liberalization and other issues increase polarization in society, they are issues that, in addition to the progressive left, do not find support among the rest of the population, they tear down more than they add, they reduce the support that is already obtained by the government”.
“And the reduction in polarization, however, has increased the popularity of the Lula government, as the economic improvement is read into segments such as the middle class or the evangelicals, who were previously identified with Bolsonarianism, as a result of the decrease in this polarization, hence the Government is prioritizing the economic agenda over the agenda for agrarian reform, diversity and inclusiveness, which are not generating electoral gains.”
But “there is pressure, yes, from the left,” admits Kaysel, “after all, in Zanin’s case, he was Lula’s personal choice and has turned out to be more conservative than order, adding to the pressure in politics. next appointment to the STF”.
“The oil problem is even more sensitive. After all, the Sustainability Network was created in 2009, after Marina broke with the government,” he argues. “Under pressure from the poor states in the region, Lula says he is in favor of exploration, but on the other hand, he has environmental policy at the center of his international projection, so he will try, as always, to be conciliatory but also conciliatory are. , sometimes there may be no middle ground”.
The DN asked the PT for comment on the matter, but no leader responded. However, Justice Minister Flávio Dino told Globonews that “the Lula government is not leftist, but expresses a democratic majority.”
Source: DN
