On the night from Thursday to Friday, US President Joe Biden wanted to be particularly serious. At a Democratic fundraiser held in a New York apartment, the White House occupant warned of a risk of a nuclear “apocalypse” never greater since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, he said.
no new information
But are these threats really part of an irreversible escalation of tensions, which could lead to the use of atomic weapons for the third time since 1945? For Lova Rinel, a researcher in nuclear deterrence, Joe Biden’s statements, which are part of the nuclear rhetoric, must be separated from what really happens in the operational field, called “strategic dialogue”.
“The strategic dialogue is the military implementation. Are the bombers armed, for example? These are discussions. And the various authorities confirm it: we are still talking with the Russian authorities on the issue. Level, so that there is no increased alert nuclear”. “, the investigator told BFMTV.
After the concern raised by Joe Biden’s statements, the White House spokeswoman, Karine Jean-Pierre, had to update this Friday: “We have no reason to adjust our own position on nuclear weapons, nor do we have any indication of that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons. weapons imminently.”
Same story by many top US officials contacted by CNN. On condition of anonymity, all said there was no evidence that Vladimir Putin intended to use nuclear fire, or that he had taken steps to do so. Several senior officials were even surprised by the particularly serious tone used Thursday night by Joe Biden, when no new information reached intelligence services.
Concern among Westerners
But the US president’s words nonetheless illustrate the concern that is emerging in Western foreign ministries. And this for several reasons. First, because Vladimir Putin has repeated many times since the beginning of the Ukraine invasion that Russia would not hesitate to use all the weapons at its disposal if the situation worsened.
Currently, in the operational field, the Moscow army has suffered major setbacks since September and the launch of a particularly effective counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. The reconquest of Lyman, where the Russian forces allowed themselves to be surrounded, testifies to this.
Similarly, although the beginning of the offensive in February was marked by a united front of Russian elites behind their president, the first discordant voices are beginning to be heard. According to Washington Post, an adviser very close to Vladimir Putin, being in his first circle, would have recently indicated to him that things were not going in the right direction. Chechen autocrat Ramzan Kadyrov for his part suggested the use of strategic nuclear weapons on the battlefield to unblock the situation.
Can Vladimir Putin decide alone?
Would a cornered Vladimir Putin be more unpredictable? According to Russian nuclear doctrine, the use of atomic weapons can only be justified by an attack that endangers the very existence of the Russian Federation. However, the current situation in Ukraine does not endanger the existence of Putin’s country, even if it is up to him to define the notion of “existential threat”.
It also remains to be seen whether, according to Russia’s nuclear decision-making scheme, a simple decision by Vladimir Putin is enough to launch an attack. In the days of the Soviet Union, such a decision had to be made collectively, in conjunction with the Minister of the Armed Forces and the Chief of Staff. But nothing indicates that this principle has been preserved with the fall of the USSR.
For researcher Lova Rinel, the current situation regarding the Russian nuclear strategy should be analyzed. “It’s part of their way of expressing themselves. Vladimir Putin, his entourage, are constantly blowing hot and cold. They play the role of arson firefighters. This has one goal: to destabilize NATO, which is Russia’s enemy. They are trying to put the world in tension, so that we stop the sanctions, and the logistical support to Ukraine. It is a nuclear dialectical confrontation”, judges the researcher.
Asked about this issue in Prague, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, did not endorse the recent statements by Joe Biden, refusing to make “political fiction”.
Source: BFM TV
