The return to the National Assembly in France will take place on Monday and the political agenda will include the immigration law, as well as the difficulties in finding successors to the president, Emmanuel Macron, in 2027.
In terms of French priorities, purchasing power continues to lead the polls, followed by security, especially after the summer riotswith immigration ranking only sixth, according to a survey published by BFMTV at the end of August.
Away from the spotlight are the European elections, which will take place in June 2024, where there are still doubts about a possible joint candidacy of the left, which came together in the parliamentary elections, but also of the right-wing candidates and the presidential majority. On the far right, Marine Le Pen’s young successor, Jordan Bardella, and Le Pen’s own niece, Marion Marechal, top the list, but ahead of Eric Zemmour’s party (Regain).
These are the main issues that will dominate the political agenda in France:
immigration law
The immigration bill, which was frozen after pension reform was approved without a vote in the General Assembly, will be up for debate again this fall. This legislation, which has already been pre-approved by deputies, contains two main chapters: one that aims to punish illegal immigration more severely and another that aims to focus on integration, for example requiring a minimum level of French to enter the country can live. .
“The political rent will be encouraged by the immigration bill. But it will be a frustrating law because we can do what we want, more restrictive legislation, but we will not be able to stop this flow on our own, because it is a European issue. Moreover, regardless of the measures, there will always be people who will try to flee Africa because of conflict, poverty and of course the dream of coming to Europe,” said Jean-Yves Camus, co-director of the Political Affairs Observatory. Radicalisms, in statements to Agência Lusa.
The presidential majority is now seeking support for this law. On the right, Republicans are calling for the suppression of one of the government’s proposals aimed at legalizing workers in high-need professions, such as restaurants or hotels, until at least 2026. If this point persists, the right threatens a motion of censure that could ultimately bring down the government. Faced with the possibility that this paragraph would disappear from the text, several deputies of the majority and even members of the executive publicly defended its retention in an opinion article in the newspaper “Libération”.
This is an issue that is mobilizing the far right, with Marine Le Pen defending a referendum based on immigration in France.
Less mobilization on the streets
After months of mobilization on the streets, the French today seem more concerned about the rising cost of living and the slow updating of salaries. This is a contradictory feeling, as discontent is ‘growing’, but fewer French people are interested in demanding their rights.
“The protests against the reform of the pension system have left deep scars on the population, because no one has yet digested the fact that they still have to work for two more years, and the relationship between trade unions and political power has deteriorated. At the same time, the French economy is entering a complicated period and this makes people dissatisfied, that is, more frustration towards the government, but ultimately people are more concerned about the difficulties of their daily lives,” said Jean-Marie Pernot. researcher at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IRES).
For Jean-Yves Camus, this ‘frustration’ must now find a political vehicle to gain electoral expression and regain new strength. Otherwise, he believes, frustrated citizens will eventually become disinterested in politics, and “there will therefore be no change through voting.”
Over the past month, Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne met with party and union leaders, revealing that the demonstrations have brought about changes “in the way” of governing, but not in the ideology.
“I think the government is paying more attention to the way it communicates, but it is not changing the measures it wants to implement because of public opinion or the reaction of the French. The ministers are authoritarian and have no regard for the unions, they think they are useless and that the democratic test is only carried out during elections,” explains Jean-Marie Pernot.
The presidential majority is preparing for 2027
Even with the European elections next year, the French are more interested in the 2027 presidential elections, because Macron will no longer be able to run for office and the majority will have to find an heir who can stand up to the far right. The best-positioned candidate is former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, the political figure most liked by the French according to a monthly survey conducted by the newspaper “Les Echos”.
Édouard Philippe, current president of the Chamber of Havre, reappeared this month with the book “The places that speak”, after conducting a round of interviews with the main Gallic media. According to a poll by the Elabe agency for BFMTV, Philippe will be the only one to win in a duel against Marine Le Pen, with votes from 58% of those polled. However, Jean-Yves Camus believes that the French have not forgotten their close relationship with Macron between 2017 and 2020.
“Édouard Philippe is preparing, it seems clear to me, and we are going to have a fight between Gerald Darmanin and Édouard Philippe in the presidential majority, and they are not exactly on the same political line. But who can believe that Philippe, because he is Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron has been, embodies options that are fundamentally different from the line we currently have?” he asked.
At the same time, it fell to Gerald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior, to organize a meeting at the end of August to resume political life in the government, including the Prime Minister in her stronghold in Tourcoing, in northern France.
“The problem is that in this immigration debate, Gerald Darmanin will play the heaviest and most powerful role, that is, the one who tries to wink at far-right voters. I have many doubts that this will be helpful to his trajectory as president. And in Rome or even in Paris we can be firm on immigration, but how will this happen in concrete terms? Uncertainty will continue,” he said.
On the left, Jean-Marie Pernot says there is a lack of ‘electoral dynamism’ and Jean-Yves Camus even classifies this period as one of ‘political paralysis’. On the traditional right, Camus is even betting on the extinction of the Republican Party in 2027.
Source: DN
