The final results should not be known until Tuesday, but this Monday afternoon, with 80% of the votes counted, Poles appeared to be preparing for a return to power by Donald Tusk. Although the Law and Justice Party (PiS, led by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski) led with 37% of the votes in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, the Civic Coalition, led by the former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council, seemed in a better position to form a coalition government with two other liberal opposition parties. Together they should receive 52% of the total votes.
If this result is confirmed, obtained in the elections with the highest participation since the fall of communism, it will mark the end of eight years of PiS dominance, during which relations between Warsaw and Brussels deteriorated. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (even though everyone knew Kaczynski continued to maneuver in the shadows), Poland saw the EU withhold billions of euros in EU funds because they believed that Poland’s conservative executive was depriving women of their rights because of its made access to abortion extremely difficult and threatened the independence of the judicial system and restricted press freedom by taking control of the state broadcaster.
The latest clash between Poland and the EU took place in Granada when Warsaw’s executive (like Hungary) blocked an agreement on migration reform at an informal summit held there. Influence or not of the campaign for these parliamentary elections, Poland, which became one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters after the Russian invasion in January 2022, announced that it would no longer send weapons to Kiev. This is also a consequence of the dispute over the import of Ukrainian grains exempt from customs duties in Poland, which called into question the unanimous European support for Ukrainians.
As the far right and populists of various movements gain strength in many European countries – the return to power of the pro-Russia Robert Fico in Slovakia is just the latest example, but in France, Austria or Germany these political camps have strengthened themselves – the The EU relies on the Citizens Coalition’s promise to return to the European mainstream. Listened to by the BBC, European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas said he hoped the tensions surrounding “shadow” relations between Warsaw and Brussels will now dissipate, stating that Poland is part of the heart of Europe. And Poles seem to agree whether polls show whether more than 80% of the population supports its presence in the EU.
After a campaign in which Kaczynski accused him of being a puppet of Berlin and Brussels, Tusk claimed victory on Sunday, announcing the end of “dark times”. But the liberal camp has challenges ahead. For now, it is expected that President Andrzej Duda will invite PiS to form a government first as it has the most votes. But if this fails, he will have to challenge Tusk, who, together with Terceira Via and Nova Esquerda, should have the majority of deputies and see a government approved in a vote of confidence.
But the diversity of views among the different members of such a coalition indicates that coexistence is not always easy. For example, when it comes to abortion, both the Civic Coalition and the New Left support liberalization, defending women’s right to terminate a pregnancy up to twelve weeks. The Third Way plans to repeal a 2020 decision banning abortion in cases of severe fetal malformations, but wants any other change to be put to a referendum.
And as the opposition promised to restore the independence of the judiciary and the public media, the New Left wants to reduce the influence of the Catholic Church (more than 71% of Poles identify themselves as Catholic according to the 2021 census), leaving the Third Party could remain. I looked uncomfortable.
Source: DN
