If we limit ourselves to Israel’s Arab and African allies, the oldest are Egypt (Camp David-1978) and Jordan (1994). These are also countries bordering Palestine/Israel and which have lately been seen as “the Peniche friends of the Palestinians” because they refuse to receive citizens from Gaza who want to flee the conflict with their families. The reasons are obvious, as both countries have a significant portion of their respective populations of Palestinian descent, the result of nearly eighty years of tensions, escapes and a permanent environment of latent war, which seasonally surfaces and explodes in the course of the war. a howitzer or on a rocket launch ramp. Jordan has about 70% of its population of Palestinian descent, a percentage of which is Queen Consort Rania al-Yassin (despite being born in Kuwait), but even this does not facilitate an ‘open-door policy’ in the current context of humanitarian urgency. . As for Egypt, it does not have such a high Palestinian demographic percentage, but it does have a border post with the Gaza Strip (Rafah), which implies that for decades one has known/seen the reality of tunnels, whose “entrance/exit mouths ” in Sinai, Egyptian territory. The management of this file must necessarily please the Israeli ally, under penalty of turning Egypt into an obvious “Islamist collaboration”, since Hamas is a subsidiary of the Muslim Brotherhood (IM), based in Cairo, despite having 2014 has been declared illegal by the General Assembly. -Sissi, the first measure he took shortly after his election as President of the Arab Republic of Egypt.
At the Cairo Summit in mid-October, both of Palestine’s neighbors and Israel were essentially full circle in their speeches and intentions. Not that the speeches and intentions ‘didn’t have a point to achieve’, but ’round’ because they hit the usual key, ‘calling for peace and strengthening efforts to resolve the problem and guarantee that Palestine finally has an official and becomes an unofficial state. “. The King of Jordan, for example, asked the impossible by “calling for an impartial approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”! In short, they talked a lot and in the end they disagreed (Arabs and Europeans/EU present) to to draw up a simple joint final declaration. The Arabs insisted on demanding an immediate ceasefire from Israel and the Europeans, being more practical and realistic, wanted to focus their efforts and declaration on the urgency of humanitarian aid to civilians.
Given this position, if the large-scale land invasion of Gaza is confirmed, Egypt and Jordan will have the so-called “war diplomacy” as their main activity, and the main problem will be the so-called “Arab Street”, their own people who will contest the Israeli attack and a military will demand an answer that will never happen, under American supervision, the ‘Big Brother’ of the Eastern Mediterranean.
The “Brotherhood of Abraham”
The 2020 Abraham Accords, in the latter part of the Trump administration, convinced several countries traditionally hostile to Israel to join them in the following months, regularizing diplomatic and commercial relations with Israel. From the first wave, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain (September), from the second, Morocco (December) and the Republic of Sudan (January 2021). Also in 2021, Oman was surveyed but stated that it was satisfied with the level of relations it maintains with Israel. Jordan, Israel’s ally since 1994, took advantage of this ‘Abraham context’ to strengthen ties with the UAE, exporting 600 MW of electricity/year to Israel.
Of these new allies, three monarchies and one republic allow for more or less simple forward-looking accounts. The monarchies will, in theory, maintain the “Arab Street” despite the contestation. Why? Because the king is always right! Why? Because he is considered enlightened by God! In this regard, it is worth remembering that the King of Morocco, Mohamed VI, direct descendant of the Prophet Mohammed and leader of the faithful, only received his divine lost character. however, remains an untouchable figure.
The Republic of Sudan, currently experiencing a civil war, is the recent ally to raise credible doubts about its future stance towards Abraham, via an Israeli advance into Gaza. Why? Because it is the back base of the IM, which, as mentioned earlier, has since become illegal in Egypt. On the other hand, the Sudanese National Army has been infiltrated by the IM for decades, which also represents the last Islamic hope for a capable army to raise the flag of Islam in the final battle in an end of the world scenario. And also because of the ‘historical curiosity’ that Sudan restored diplomatic relations with Iran on October 9, two days after Hamas’ lightning attack! By Christmas we will surely have answers to all current doubts, centering on future Iranian options, which may include the current rhetoric and material support for Hamas and Hezbollah, or the irrational escalation of “making or breaking” those He wants . let God “run his hand through his fleece”!
What seems important to me to understand at this stage is that the game is at the level of survival. From Israel, Hamas and the Iranian regime itself, something has to change so that everything remains the same!
Political scientist/Arabist
www.maghreb-machrek.pt (under repair)
Source: DN
