There is much talk of Henry Kissinger looking at the possibility of communism triumphing in Portugal in 1974-1975 as a kind of vaccine against the strength of other communist parties in Western Europe, namely France and Italy. In other words, communism would later fail in Portugal and serve as a European vaccine. Did the thesis really exist?
This statement actually existed and must be understood in this context of the question. Henry Kissinger would say that Portugal, in the broader context of the Cold War and the specific situation that existed in Southern Europe during that period, was important because it was a member state of NATO, it was a country that hosted the American base in Lajes had. and was the first NATO member country to have communists in government, especially in provisional governments. Portugal was important in its own right, but it mattered even more given the international context of the time, namely what seemed to be the rise of communism throughout southern Europe, with the danger of communist parties coming to power in France would come up with the program common to François Mitterrand’s socialists. In Italy, with the historic alliance between the Christian Democrats of Aldo Moro and the PCI, in Greece itself there was a process of transfer of power, after the fall of the government of the Colonels as a result of the Cyprus War, and it was known that historically the Communists had had a lot of influence in the country. And even in Spain it was known that Franco was ill and that sooner or later he would die and that a transition process could take place.
Mário Soares and the US Ambassador to Portugal, Frank Carlucci, will successfully refute Kissinger’s thesis, but there is a conflict within the US government between those who believed in the vaccine thesis and those who wanted to keep Portugal on their side at all costs . American?
Precisely. There was a perception at the time that NATO’s entire southern flank was crumbling and that the United States could do nothing in that context. Portugal would become communist, that’s what Kissinger said. The ministers will be communists, the revolution will win, what can be done is that Portugal becomes a vaccine, that is, an example of an impoverished, unstable, isolated country. If it were a vaccine, all this would be an example that should not be followed by France, Italy, Greece and Spain. Then there was another thesis, the Frank Carlucci thesis, which can be classified as the thesis of support for moderate non-communist forces and what defined it was that Portugal would not become a communist country, on the contrary, the most normal thing was that they would doing. to win over the democratic forces, as long as the United States understood the following: the Portuguese revolution was a left-wing revolution, very left, after a right-wing dictatorship of almost fifty years. Therefore, the United States could support non-communist left forces and not the adventures of the Spinolists or the separatism of the Azores.
Will Gerald Ford be more true to this second statement?
Ford ends up being the essential president of the entire period because Richard Nixon resigns in August 1974, after the Watergate scandal, and what fundamentally happens during Ford’s presidency. What is Carlucci thinking about? Carlucci believes that non-communist democratic forces can win as long as they receive sufficient support from abroad, mainly due to four main factors. Firstly, because Portugal is a country in the far west of Europe, very far away from the Soviet Union and the Red Army. Because Portugal then had the vast majority of its trade links with Western Europe, 96% or 97% of its trade. Also because Portugal had an agricultural structure with small private land ownership, with the exception of Alentejo. Portugal was also a NATO member state and there were strong links between the Portuguese military and the NATO military and structures. And Portugal was a very Catholic country, it had a very strong Catholic Church. Therefore, if the newspapers supported the non-communist left-wing Portuguese forces, these forces would win, and I think this has to do with the outcome of the Constituent Assembly elections and the victory that the Socialist Party achieved throughout the country . at the elections.
In other words, in April 1975, Carlucci’s thesis was proven to contradict Kissinger’s.
What the April 1975 elections did was position the Socialist Party as a privileged interlocutor, not the only one, but a privileged interlocutor for the United States in this context.
If we go back to 1973, still with Nixon as president, we have the Yom Kippur War in which Kissinger is extremely important for the final outcome, but also Portugal, because it is the only NATO country that allows the United States to to use his power. bases to arm Israel. Is this another important moment for Kissinger and Portugal?
Yes, it is a very important moment, because Kissinger in fact establishes a permanent link with the Portuguese government, when Marcelo Caetano was still ruling, and somehow forces Portugal to allow the Azores, unlike other European allies, becoming the epicenter of the war. the airlift carried out by the United States of America to provide military support to Israel in the Yom Kippur War. And this is absolutely crucial to turn the course of the war because, as we know, the attack by Egypt and Syria initially seemed to be successful and it is the support that the United States of America will give to the Israeli army. level, and which passes through Lajes, ultimately changing the course of the Yom Kippur War. Portugal plays a fundamental role through a direct link between Kissinger and the Portuguese authorities.
And what about Kissinger and Portugal’s decolonization? Not so much in Africa, but what approval did the Americans give to the invasion of East Timor by the Indonesians at the end of 1975? Does this also happen in the context of the Cold War?
That’s exactly it. Kissinger can only be understood if we realize that at the time we were living in the Cold War, in a bipolar system, in a political, ideological, economic and existential competition between the communist world and the capitalist world, led by the Soviet Union and the United States. States. And this also explains his behavior in Timor: the idea that there was, particularly strong at that time, that the instability of dominoes, the idea that it was enough that a country in a region would fall into communism, which would then end come up causing it to drop all the others. There are fears that if Timor were to fall, Indonesia could eventually fall into the hands of communism and other countries.
We are talking about months after the fall of Saigon, the reunification of Vietnam, and therefore Timor could become communist and Indonesia itself could be dragged into this turmoil?
Precisely. This is made worse. In fact, US military involvement in Indochina is being carried out in the name of this domino idea. Therefore, as you rightly say, this further aggravates the fact that this happened in Timor, in the middle of the Indochina debacle.
Kissinger was in Portugal months ago, already celebrating his centenary. Do you have any idea if you have ever praised the success of Portuguese democracy?
He did so, and in 1976, when Mário Soares left for the United States after November 25, the PREC had already been completed. Kissinger gathers his entire State Department staff in Washington and tells them, with Soares at the head, causing laughter: “As you know, I am one who is never wrong, but I must recognize that in the event of Portugal was wrong. In fact, the democratic forces were able to defeat the forces of the Communist Party.”
Source: DN
