Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre, who studies climate change, considers, in an interview with Lusa, that the Amazon is already very close to the point at which it will cease to be a tropical forest and become a savanna.
Nobre, who is participating in five studies on the Brazilian Amazon presented at the 28th United Nations Climate Conference (COP28), which is taking place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, until the 12th, explained that the dry period in the Amazon Brazilian has increased in recent decades, a clear sign that the so-called point of no return, that is, the ‘savannization’ of the biome, is near.
“We are very close to that point of no return because throughout the southern Amazon the dry season is much longer. The dry season was three to four months. Today, the dry season is [com uma duração] four to five months. If it takes five to six months, in two decades, if we continue in this direction, this is already a tropical savanna climate, a closed climate. [bioma brasileiro]and it is no longer a climate [da floresta tropical] of the Amazon,” he told Lusa.
The expert cited as an example of the loss of vitality of the biome, essential to stop global warming, the fact that in the south of the Brazilian state of Pará and in the north of the state of Mato Grosso the Amazon rainforest has already become a carbon source, that is, it emits more carbon into the atmosphere than it absorbs.
“Why the dry season? [na Amazónia] Is it getting longer? “It is a complex and synergistic combination of global warming that is making extreme events more extreme,” he said, mentioning El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs on average every two to seven years associated with rising temperatures. on the surface in the center of the country and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, but which has effects throughout the world.
“Why are Strong Boys becoming more frequent? Global warming, warmer oceans (…) The Equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer. The Atlantic Ocean north of the Equator is breaking temperature records and this is causing droughts in the Amazonas. The Children induce droughts in the Amazon,” he added.
In addition to climate change, the Brazilian scientist, who last year was elected foreign member of the Royal Society, a British institution that promotes scientific knowledge in the world, cited deforestation combined with livestock farming in northern Brazil, which has increased significantly. in recent years. .decades.
“The place with grass is very inefficient for recycling water. Grass does not recycle water like the forest does during the dry season (…) The forest recycles water in a very efficient way, so that is what is happening. These are the reasons Frequent droughts such as [as que aconteceram] in 2005, in 2010, between 2015 and 2016 and [a seca recorde na Amazónia registada] now in 2023, which goes until 2024,” he pointed out.
“Before we had a more pronounced drought in the Amazon every two decades. Now we are having four droughts in two decades, that is, three to four times more frequent […] and this, together with deforestation, is putting the Amazon at enormous risk [de chegar] to the point of no return,” he concluded.
Nobre’s assessment is in line with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the group of scientists created by the United Nations to monitor and advise on all global science related to climate change, of which he was a member, which They point out that the savannaization of the Amazon is already an ongoing phenomenon.
The Amazon is the largest tropical forest in the world and has the greatest biodiversity recorded in an area on the planet, with around 5.5 million square kilometers and includes territories in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guyana, Surinam. and French Guiana (belonging to France).
Source: TSF
