One day after Russian election authorities scheduled presidential elections for March 15, 16 and 17 next year, Vladimir Putin confirmed he is running for a fifth term in the Kremlin. The war in Ukraine and its consequences for international politics, as well as the impact of sanctions on the domestic economy, are some of the challenges of Putin 5.0. Thanks to the repression of the opposition and critical voices, the way is open for the Russian president to remain in power until 2030 (and ultimately until 2036).
‘I’m going to run for president, today there was no other option’, Putin said on the sidelines of a military awards ceremony in the Kremlin for fighters who took part in the “Special Operation” in Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022. It was the military themselves who, in a “spontaneous” way, according to the spokesman the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, asked Putin to be a candidate. “I am not hiding it, I have had different views at different times, but this is a time when a decision has to be made,” said the president who will resume his usual annual press conference next Thursday (which was canceled from last year). ).
Putin’s re-election is almost certain, given the lack of opposition, his control over the media and the fact that previous voting rounds were marked by irregularities, without the presence of independent observers. Only five parties were allowed to nominate a candidate for next year’s elections, without having to collect signatures. They were all supporters of the Kremlin and the operation in Ukraine.
Over the years, the president has silenced opponents, some of whom ultimately died or were arrested. Alexei Navalny, who survived a poisoning attempt and was convicted of embezzlement and extremist activities, called on his supporters to vote for anyone but Putin in this ‘farce’. According to the independent non-governmental organization Levada Center, the president has an approval rating of 82%, higher than what he had before the war in Ukraine, when it was around 60%.
Unless there is some surprise, the presidential election will still take place while the Russian military is involved in the fighting in Ukraine; the vote should also take place in the regions illegally annexed last year. The war is the biggest challenge for Putin, who did not achieve the quick victory he expected and is now betting on the passage of time. As the months pass, Western support for Kiev is fading – just look at the difficulties the US Congress is having in approving more funding – and in November 2024, Americans will also vote, with Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House. House. In the worst case, the conflict will be ‘frozen’.
Despite North American and European sanctions – Brussels is already studying the twelfth package of sanctions – the Russian economy has managed to keep its head above water, partly thanks to increased military production. The positive economic figures (GDP grew by 5% in October compared to the same month last year) are also due to Putin moving closer to China and India, looking for alternatives to the trade ties he had with the European Union. its main energy importer before the war.
But many young professionals and information technology specialists have left the country to avoid being mobilized for war, and according to Reuters, there are already labor shortages in some crucial sectors. Furthermore, inflation is around 7% and interest rates are at 15%, meaning the future could be bleaker for the Russian economy.
From the KGB to the Kremlin in 2036?
As a former member of the secret services (KGB and later FSB), Putin was virtually unknown when he was appointed Prime Minister by Boris Yeltsin in August 1999., temporarily assuming the presidency on the last day of that same year when he resigned by surprise. He would be officially elected in March 2000 and has been in power ever since.
Between 2008 and 2012, he switched places with his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, because rules prohibited three consecutive terms. After a hiatus as head of the government, from which he continued to exert his influence, Putin returned to the Kremlin in 2012 and was re-elected in 2018. Two years later, a constitutional reform was approved, opening the door to him. for two more terms (now six years) and in theory remain in power until 2036 – when he will be 84 years old.
Source: DN
