Concluding The Invention of the New Russia, Russian journalist Arkady Ostrovsky said in 2015: ‘The only consistent feature of Russia’s history is its unpredictability. As Yegor Gaidar, who wrote the Chronicle of its Collapse, once said of the Soviet empire: the great changes are happening later than we think, but sooner than we expect.”
For Vladimir Putin, the goal for the coming year is to prevent any prospect of change except on the Ukrainian front. It aims to take advantage of the regime-controlled elections of March, to continue to engage citizens in the narrative that the Kremlin, led by the Kremlin, is the only guarantee against the West, decadent and threatening, not only at the military level . but also of the values of traditional Russians.
For Volodymyr Zelensky, who would vote for a second term in peacetime, his political survival – and by extension that of Ukraine – is once again closely tied to the famous statement he said to the Americans hours after the start of the Russian invasion. , when he refused to leave Kiev: “I need ammunition, not a lift.” Putin and Zelensky’s plans depend on military aid to Ukraine, especially from the US, hence the dramatic importance of the November 5 elections.
The presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine separate almost everything. But at some point they come together. They came to power thanks to television and both are aware of the power of images. After avoiding the four-hour televised spectacle of the annual press conference in 2022, when his army licked the wounds of the withdrawal from Kherson, Putin used this tool again on the eve of confirming what everyone already knew. term in the Kremlin. What he said there, in the presence of hundreds of journalists, the vast majority of whom were Russian, and in response to predetermined questions, was nothing new. But precisely because he returned to an optimistic, even triumphant speech, he showed a leader who had faith in Western hesitations and divisions.
It was no surprise: his Trojan horse in the European Union, Viktor Orbán, had blocked the approval of four-year financing for Ukraine, worth 50 billion euros. And in the United States, domestic political calculations and blind obedience to Donald Trump on the part of some Republican representatives prevented the continuation of military aid, casting a shadow on the viability of Ukraine, at the same time that the EU announced the opening of negotiations would be opened with Kiev about its military support. eventual membership of the European club.
“There will be peace when we achieve our goals,” Putin predicted, that is, only when the Ukrainian army is destroyed (“demilitarization”) and the Ukrainian republic is beheaded (“denazification”) and a puppet regime is imposed or the country is attached (“status of neutrality”). Reiterating the goal of Russian expansionism both at the press conference and at another televised moment a few days later – the meeting with senior defense officials – Putin praised the military and said the initiative on the ground lies on the Russian side.
War economics
One of the consequences of the casualties – estimated in the West at 300,000 men and the associated losses of military equipment – and the economic sanctions is the transformation of the Russian economy into a war economy. After a contraction of 2.1% of GDP in 2022, the Russian Federation showed a growth of 3.5% in 2023 thanks to investments in defense, which will see a 70% increase in the budget in 2024, representing a third of the state’s total expenditure.
The war machine brought hundreds of thousands of people to Ukraine and hundreds of thousands more fled the country. So the unemployment rate is 3% and the arms industry is under pressure to double production. There are indications that the regime has partly managed to circumvent sanctions to continue producing missiles and drones at pre-war levels, but at the expense of other sectors. “By focusing everything on increasing military spending, the Kremlin is forcing the economy to fall into the trap of constant war,” Pavel Luzin and Alexandra Prokopenko analyze in an article published in Carnegie Politika, in which they argue that “the ordinary Russians will be the ones to pay the price.”
Moreover, not everything is under control. The massive devaluation of the ruble had the effect of increasing inflation, prompting Putin in a rare moment to apologize for the high price of eggs and chicken at the aforementioned press conference. But according to a survey by the Levada Center, it was the outcome of the war that most viewers wanted to hear about. And at this point there are no excuses, just resentment and a distorted view of history for someone who once compared himself to Emperor Peter the Great.
The conquest of Crimea was experienced by the majority of the Russian population as a moment of pride, while the meat grinder that is the ‘special military operation’ leaves the majority of the population dissatisfied. A survey conducted in December by the Russian Field company concluded that 48% of Russians agreed with the request for demobilization of military women, while 32% disagreed. This is a potential flashpoint for destabilization, not just before the election but also afterward, in a society bent by repression against Putin’s opponents, to be sure, but with a long tradition of women’s resistance to war. Suffice it to point out the central role played by the Committee of Russian Soldiers’ Mothers during the war in Chechnya.
Press Zelenskiy
Zelensky and his advisers continued to evaluate, under outside pressure, the possibility of holding elections, but ultimately concluded that a country under martial law, and with millions of displaced people, is incapable of doing so – a decision that 80% of the votes are supported. population. However, the Ukrainian president will increasingly find his legitimacy questioned if he is unable to respond to parallel pressures to fight corruption and deepen democratic reforms. On the other hand, to obtain money and military equipment to keep the state functioning and at least to ensure that positions on the front lines are maintained.
With aid from the United States and the EU under control, Kiev expects that $300 billion will be released from Russian accounts to finance the country and, with the contribution of F-16 fighters, launch a new offensive campaign.
Source: DN
