Ukraine accused, despite Daesh’s claims. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his intelligence services highlight Ukraine’s responsibility in the attack that left at least 137 dead in a concert hall near Moscow on Friday, March 22. A far from trivial speech, when Russia has been at war with Ukraine for more than two years.
The Islamic State group, for its part, quickly claimed responsibility for the attack, while many experts agree that the Ukrainian tip appears to have little credibility.
The Kremlin reaffirmed this Monday morning that it will not make any comment on the IS claim while the investigation is “ongoing.” Emmanuel Macron warns, for his part, against any “instrumentalization” of the conflict.
Ukraine denies responsibility
On Saturday, President Putin spoke to Russians for the first time since the attack and announced that “the four perpetrators” of the attack were detained while “they were heading towards Ukraine, where, according to preliminary data (from investigators), a ‘ window.’ ‘I had been prepared for them to cross the border.
With this speech, the head of the Kremlin repeats the version of his security services, which shortly after the attack accused Ukraine of being the origin of the attack. The president deliberately does not mention the Islamic State group at any point. This same group, however, on Friday night claimed responsibility for the attack.
Ukraine, for its part, denies any responsibility for the attack. “About the events in Moscow (on Friday), it is clear that Putin and other scum are trying to shift responsibility to others,” President Volodymyr Zelensky accuses in a video posted on his social networks.
“Instead of addressing his own citizens, Putin remained silent all day, thinking about how to link this event with Ukraine. All of this is completely predictable,” he laments again.
Putin’s version is questioned internationally
Abroad, the United States publicly doubts the Ukrainian record. Washington, which had warned Russia of the risk of attack several weeks ago, indicated on Friday that it had “no indication at this time that Ukraine or Ukrainians are involved.”
“There are people in Moscow and Russia who do not agree with the way (Russian President Vladimir) Putin governs, but I do not think it is possible to establish a connection between the attack and political motives at the current stage,” said the United States National Security Council. spokesman John Kirby.
British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt goes further by publicly rejecting the Ukrainian hypothesis. He said he had “very little confidence in what the Russian government says” in an interview with Sky News on Sunday.
“We know that you are creating a propaganda smokescreen to defend a completely evil invasion of Ukraine,” he continued.
The responsibility of IS is “credible” for experts
In fact, many experts give little credence to Vladimir Putin’s version. For Fabrice Balanche, professor of geography at Lyon 2 University and specialist in the Middle East, Daesh’s claim seems “totally credible.”
“It comes from Amaq, which is the site of the Islamic State that claimed responsibility for all the other (Daesh) attacks, including the Bataclan attack in 2015,” he tells BFMTV.
Furthermore, the “mode of operation” used by the attackers is “approximately the same as that observed in France”, attacking citizens in an undifferentiated manner and attacking a concert hall occupied by a dense crowd.
This is “the same modus operandi as Al-Qaeda when it carried out attacks in Spain and France to get (Western governments) to withdraw their support for Arab regimes they considered anti-Muslim.” However, “Russia, through its wars in Chechnya and Syria against IS, is an enemy of jihadist groups,” explains Fabrice Balanche.
“Putin’s attempt to hide his failure”
Why then such an accusation against Ukraine by Putin? For Patricia Allémonière, former major reporter and author of In the heart of chaosIt is important to keep in mind that Moscow’s attack constitutes a true “snub” to the “order that Putin embodies.”
“You immediately need someone to blame” to explain this attack, analyzes BFMTV, and “the ideal culprit is Ukraine.”
“We must see it as an attempt on their part to hide their failure in the face of the attack that affected Moscow,” also supports Lieutenant Colonel Guillaume Ancel, former officer and co-author of Goodbye Putin published in 2023, on BFMTV.
“The fact that Putin wants to focus on his war to subjugate Ukraine does not surprise me because (the attack) represents a total failure, while his power is based on the fear it inspires.”
A way to “take a step forward” in Ukraine
Although Russia has been at war against Ukraine for more than two years, this attack may also represent an opportunity for the Russian president to “take the war against Ukraine to the next level,” says Olivier Védrine, political scientist and editor-in-chief. of the Russian opposition newspaper “Russian Monitor”, with BFMTV.
“Today Putin needs to say politically that he was finally right to attack Ukraine. The proof (…) that (Ukrainians) touch and beat civilians in an extremely cowardly way,” Encel Frédéric, geopolitical scientist and specialist in the Middle East.
“An internal reason”
Furthermore, Patricia Allémonière sees an “internal reason” in Vladimir Putin’s refusal to accuse the Islamic State group.
“Putin has long had the desire not to create divisions with his Muslim population, which is very significant (in Russia), representing 15% of the population,” he emphasizes, recalling that already “during the war in Chechnya, Putin accused Chechen terrorists before talking about international terrorists.
“Russia manages its Muslim community quite well and does not want to expose itself by resisting ISIS,” adds former ambassador and former president of the Alstom group in Moscow, Patrick Pascal.
Concern in Ukraine
The absence of evidence from the Russian president to support the Ukrainian thesis does not seem surprising to Fabrice Balanche. “Putin does not need evidence, he affirms truths and it is up to the population to believe him,” explains the researcher.
“(Putin’s) narrative plays with the great conspiracy against Russia. On one side, the Nazis, on the other, the Islamists, both used by the West to crush Russia.”
Now fear is spreading among Ukrainians. For Guillaume Ptak, BFMTV correspondent in kyiv, Ukraine, if “it is still difficult to determine what the Russian reaction will be,” it is feared that Vladimir Putin’s response “will legitimize a new wave of mobilization or a new wave of violence and new bombings against Ukrainian cities and against Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
Explosions were also heard in kyiv and several Ukrainian cities on Sunday and Monday morning, although it is not yet known whether they are directly related to the attack on Moscow.
Source: BFM TV
