Will Lula return at the age of 77? Can Bolsonaro win? Refuse defeat? More than 156 million Brazilians are called to elect their president on Sunday in a vote with uncertain results, after a very tense campaign.
Brazilians, often in a hurry to say “let’s finish once and for all”, go to the polls this Sunday from 8 am (12 pm, French time) in the country of continental dimensions.
If the polls have predicted for months a third four-year term for the former leftist head of state Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010), the outgoing far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, 67, can still believe it after his unexpected score in the 1st round of October 2: 43% against 48% in Lula.
a close game
Bolsonaro, who had been a dozen points behind in the polls, benefited from a dynamic between the two rounds, when the left seemed a bit stunned.
Released on Saturday night, the latest Datafolha poll may give Bolsonaro additional reason for hope: the gap is closing, with Lula winning 52%/48%. The margin of error is +/- 2 points and opinion polls have already been wrong.
Also, will Bolsonaro accept the result on Sunday night if Lula is elected? After silencing his incessant attacks on the “fraudulent” electronic ballot box system, he recently denounced alleged irregularities in the broadcast of his campaign’s radio spots. On Friday he assured that he “wins whoever has the most votes”, without convincing.
“Bolsonaro will question the result,” said Rogerio Dultra dos Santos, of the Federal University of Fluminense.
a turbulent campaign
The campaign was eventful. Bolsonaro insulted Lula: “thief”, “former prisoner”, “alcoholic” or “national shame”. The latter hit back: “pedophile”, “cannibal”, “genocidal” or “little dictator”. Accusing each other of lying, Bolsonaro and, to a lesser extent, Lula, fed the disinformation machine, which worked like never before in Brazil.
Lula wants to protect democracy and make “Brazil happy” again, after two terms in which he lifted nearly 30 million Brazilians out of poverty but where the economy was booming.
The populist Bolsonaro wants to defend “good against evil”, the family, God, the country and individual freedom. Despite a mandate marred by serious crises, including that of Covid, he retains a base of irreducible supporters and has been able to impose his political line against a barely audible left and a traditional right that has foundered.
a strong abstention
If elected, Lula, a key figure in Brazilian politics for four decades, will make a spectacular comeback after experiencing disgrace in prison (2018-2019) and then the cancellation of his corruption convictions. He is the favorite of women, the poor, Catholics and the rural Northeast. But men, the upper classes, the pro-guns, the business community and evangelicals overwhelmingly vote for Bolsonaro.
The main problem between the two rounds was the search for the 32 million abstentionists in the first round (21%). By way of comparison, Lula obtained a lead of six million votes on October 2.
The next tenant of the Planalto Palace in Brasilia will have to deal with a Parliament even more to the right than before the legislative elections on October 2: Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) is currently represented. Polling stations must close at 5:00 p.m. and the result must be announced before 8:00 p.m. (midnight French time).
Source: BFM TV
