From the point of view of the Kremlin and since the entry into force in the first days of October of the results of the annexation pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories, Kherson is the capital of one of the 48 regions that make up the Russian Federation. After weeks of retreat in the face of attacks from the opposing army, it is above all the last major city that Russian forces still hold in Ukraine. However, this Friday the noises around the imminent announcement of the abandonment of their stronghold by the Russians are going well.
The signs that point to a withdrawal from the agglomeration have been chained in recent days, between evacuations of the population, official speeches, an administrative building stripped of the Russian flag, or even a critical military situation. Our experts on the plateau, however, call for caution regarding Moscow’s intentions around Kherson.
A flag that shines by its absence
The photo was widely circulated on Ukrainian social networks. But it matters less for what it shows than for what it is absent. We see there the headquarters of the Kherson administration, seized by the Russians, without the Russian flag that crowned it since its capture by the invader.
“It is above all symbolic that Ukrainians no longer see this Russian flag,” Sylvie Bermann, BFMTV’s diplomatic consultant and former French ambassador to Russia, observed for the first time.
“Certain personalities from the administration have also been evacuated,” he continues. Apart from the exfiltration of these executives, 140,000 inhabitants have been evacuated in the last two weeks, transferred to Crimea.
“Untenable”
In a propaganda broadcast, the pro-Russian deputy governor of the region, Kirill Stremoussov, did not hesitate to go a step further. He assured that the army was preparing to leave the city. According to the images broadcast by BFMTV, his troops, in any case, are no longer visible on the streets.
According to Colonel Michel Goya, one of BFMTV’s defense consultants, there is no reason to be surprised: “The city of Kherson is located on the right bank of the Dnieper. Eventually the Russians will not be able to hold it.” It is a losing battle that the Ukrainians will inevitably win.”
The danger of a street fight
His colleague, and also a BFMTV consultant on military matters, Jérôme Pellistrandi, presented a more nuanced position this Friday morning.
“The most difficult thing remains to be done”, it began like this.
However, taking stock of the latest operations, he listed the Ukrainian assets: “When you look at a map, you have the right bank of the Dnieper and a gradual reconquest of quite agricultural areas. And everything around Kherson is relatively easy (for access, editor’s note) when you’re on the offensive.
On the other hand, for the general, if the approach to the city is relatively easy, a street fight would be much less so: “Now the interest of the Russians is to trust the city of Kherson, which is intact to take advantage of.” its infrastructure. It is a city that is on the river, it is a port and an industrial city, so if they want to wear down the Ukrainian army, that is the best place.”
The officer then presented a tactical option: “One of the working hypotheses could be: ‘We abandoned part of the right bank because it is not defensible but we are holding on in the city.'” In fact, urban guerrilla warfare presents a double advantage for the Russians: it promises to be greedy in men for the aggressor, while allowing a certain economy of means for the besieged.
“On the offensive, you have to have a ratio of six to one. So if we put 10,000 Russian soldiers in Kherson, we need 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers,” Gen. Jerome Pellistrandi said.
civil question
The Kremlin could do the calculation much faster since the sacrifice of a few thousand human lives doesn’t really scare it. “The question of losses is not a problem for Vladimir Putin. If you inflict equal losses on Ukrainian soldiers who will go into urban combat, you still have a tactical gain,” said the BFMTV Defense consultant.
Certainly, many civilians have already been pushed out of the city walls. But even if these 140,000 evacuees are deducted from the 290,000 inhabitants of Kherson before the war, the 150,000 who remain there are at the center of this crossfire. Data capable of stopping the offensive.
“It is a real tactical dilemma for the Ukrainians because it may be necessary to bomb and destroy a large part of a city in which a large part of the remaining Ukrainian population is located,” said General Jérôme Pellistrandi.
battle for opinion
In duplex from Kyiv, the Ukrainian deputy Alona Shkrum preferred to highlight the support of the locals for the national cause, even uprooted from their homeland by the expansionist goals of Vladimir Putin. “I can tell you that there is super strong resistance in Kherson. There were a lot of flyers, paintings in Kherson saying that Kherson is Ukraine, that it was a fake referendum,” she said.
The military confrontation is in fact linked to a battle for public opinion. And the Russian autocrat must take his own public into account when deciding the fate of Kherson. “In theory, Kherson is still Russian since it has been annexed. A decision that seems absurd, and that will symbolically harm Russia if it has to evacuate Kherson,” diplomat Sylvie Bermann finally stressed.
Source: BFM TV
