Polls are tighter than online betting odds. If Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are still announcing themselves side by side a few days before the US presidential elections on November 5, the former tenant of the White House is the favorite of the bookmakers.
The Republican candidate is valued this Saturday, October 26, with a 60.7% chance of winning, compared to 38.3% according to RealClearPolitics, which compiles the odds from several betting houses.
Intrigued by this difference between these different types of prediction, the New York Times questioned the existence of four accounts that would have bet heavily on Donald Trump on Polymarket.com, thus tipping the odds in his favor. The amount bet on these accounts this Thursday amounted to 28.6 million dollars.
The platform finally declared that the same French citizen was behind the pseudonyms Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie, American media report.
More than 1% of the total amount wagered on this site
In other words, the market would not have been manipulated according to its management, citing a rating “generally consistent with price movements on other predictive market platforms.”
Polymarket.com, which does not support American users, describes this Frenchman as a bettor with “extensive experience in trading and financial services,” according to a company spokesperson to Bloomberg.
The latter would have adopted “a directional position based on personal opinions about the elections.” However, the company asked him not to open other accounts without warning, which the Frenchman accepted.
The sum invested by this anonymous person represents more than 1% of the 2.4 billion dollars bet in total on the winner of the presidential elections on Polymarket.com.
A net profit of at least 14 million dollars.
To get an idea of this man’s potential benefits, keep in mind that Donald Trump’s chances of winning have increased to a high of 65% on this site since the summer, when Kamala Harris was measured at 35%.
The equivalent of an odds of around 1.50 for the Republican, compared to 2.90 for the Democrat, according to the betting system used in France.
If this rich Frenchman bet his money at a time when the trend was maximum for Donald Trump, he could recover about $43 million, for a net profit estimated at about $14 million. But his winnings could still be higher if he played at a time when Polymarket.com placed the two candidates side by side.
A victory for Kamala Harris, on the other hand, would simplify the calculation, with a net loss on her stake of $28.6 million.
Source: BFM TV
