While the United States is the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China, climate is far from the focus of the US presidential campaign. A topic on which Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have diametrically opposed opinions. Make these choices a choice between energy transition or climate skepticism, with immense global consequences.
Neither candidate has detailed a full program on the issue, but their positions are no mystery. The former president calls climate change a “hoax” and has promised to “drill like crazy” if elected.
“There would be a total change under Trump”
His victory would cause more greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, with an impact on global warming. According to an analysis by the specialized media Carbon Brief, the return of Donald Trump to the White House would cause additional emissions, until 2030, of 4,000 million tons of CO2 equivalent compared to the Democrats, that is, the annual emissions of Europe and Japan .
It would also lead to a US withdrawal from climate diplomacy, which could slow the push against fossil fuels. Without even waiting for the inauguration in January, his election would weaken the voice of American negotiators at COP29, which is due to begin six days after the election. However, the commitment of rich countries like the United States will be decisive for increasing financial aid to vulnerable countries, which is at the center of this year’s discussions.
During his term, the Republican withdrew the United States from the Paris climate agreement and promised to do so again if elected, after the annulment of this decision by his successor Joe Biden. Under this agreement, the United States committed to halving its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 2005. By 2023, this reduction had reached 18%, according to the Rhodium Group research center.
To reach 50%, “we really need to stay the course,” but “there would be a complete change with Trump,” warns Leah Stokes, a political scientist specializing in climate. “The US elections will have repercussions for the entire planet.”
Harris backs down on fracking
Kamala Harris, who attended COP28, where the United States played a key role, is committed to “continuing and developing the United States’ international leadership on climate,” according to her campaign website.
As a senator, she supported the “Green New Deal,” a resolution calling for drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, dubbed by Donald Trump as the “Green New Scam.”
In 2019, then a candidate in the Democratic primaries, she spoke out in favor of banning hydraulic fracturing, a polluting method of hydrocarbon extraction. However, he returned to this position, which was especially damaging to voters in the key state of Pennsylvania, where the sector is important.
The Democrat in the campaign makes few references to the climate. During his debate with Donald Trump, he championed the need for “diversified energy sources,” going so far as to boast that the country had “experienced the largest increase in domestic oil production in history.”
A position silently criticized by some. But all environmental associations support it and emphasize its results. They cite his prosecution of oil companies as California attorney general. And, above all, his decisive vote to adopt the “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA), a massive investment law for the energy transition.
Donald Trump periodically attacks this situation and has stated that he would “write off all unspent funds.” Other promises from Donald Trump: cancel Joe Biden’s moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, as well as “the obligation to purchase electric vehicles.” A reference to new car emissions regulations aimed at accelerating the shift to electric, without imposing it.
Other recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules, including limits on CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, could be rolled back. But “any attempt to repeal these rules will lead to numerous appeals,” believes Fatima Ahmad of the climate consultancy Boundary Stone.
In addition, “local governments and the private sector will continue to advance their climate commitments,” according to her, as “during the first Trump administration.”
Source: BFM TV
