In a week, Americans will make a historic decision. Next Tuesday, November 5, voters will place their ballot in the ballot box to vote for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the race for the White House.
As calculated by the specialized site. five thirty eightAggregating the main surveys conducted on the other side of the Atlantic, the differences in voting intentions at the national level are small, to say the least. The Democratic candidate (48.1%) enjoys a slight advantage over her Republican opponent (46.7%). A gap, within the margin of error, that has not stopped narrowing since the beginning of September, with a recovery in Donald Trump’s rating in the last fortnight.
However, in this election it is important to remember the specifics of the American system. Voters do not decide in favor of a candidate who would be elected thanks to the popular vote. They choose electors who are then responsible for choosing the president. Added to this is the peculiarity of “winner takes all”, according to which a candidate who obtains the majority in a state wins all the electors.
Trump leads in key states
Therefore, it is interesting to observe voting intentions in certain key states, which sometimes swing towards the Republican side and other times towards the Democrat throughout the different elections. As ABC News points out, there are seven and Donald Trump is in the overall lead.
In Wisconsin, voting intentions are balanced and therefore it is difficult to predict who might win among the top 10 voters. Then, in Michigan, Kamala Haris emerged with a very narrow majority, less than one point. As for Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona: the former president has a lead of one to two points according to the poll aggregator.
It is evident that, in the -unlikely- hypothesis that these latest predictions turn out to be perfectly correct, Donald Trump would win thanks to the electoral system, without winning the popular vote. A scenario similar to that of the 2016 presidential elections, where Hillary Clinton was defeated by the Republican candidate despite obtaining more votes.
But the famous “swing states” have changed color several times in recent days. Nevada and Pennsylvania were still leaning toward Kamala Harris in early October. But as the New York Times also reports, polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated the enthusiasm behind Donald Trump in key states.
As the political editorial writer of the prestigious newspaper points out, the party remains “extraordinarily even” and no one really has “a significant advantage (…) that could decide the presidency.”
Source: BFM TV
